For the Bush Administration's theologians, the rationale, timing and necessity for going to war against Iraq have been self-evident for so long that the only reason no shots have yet been fired is mainly mechanical: not enough forces in place. That's why the President sounded so exasperated last week when he called the rising volume of objections from abroad, even as he was jockeying his troops into ready position, the "rerun of a bad movie." Surely, he snapped, "our friends have learned lessons from the past." Yet for a growing chorus of other folks, not least of all America's foremost allies, those lessons are no easy guide to the future. Accusing the U.S. of needless "impatience," French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin seemed to speak for much of the international community last week when he declared, "We see no justification right now for any military action."
Is this the signal of a major rift pitting the U.S. against the world, or just part of the usual diplomatic sparring and face-saving before a global coalition sets off for Baghdad? Both France and Germany raised sharp and public objections to Bush's rush toward war, then showed their Euro-muscle by tabling a U.S. request for nato military assistance. In advance of this week's scheduled report on weapons inspections to the U.N. Security Council, powerful members were laying down markers for a contentious debate on whether and when to authorize a fight. France hinted at a veto. President Vladimir Putin called Bush to warn that Russia likewise is not ready to say "go," and China let it be known that it was "extremely close" to the French position. Washington believes it can steamroller its way through with tough diplomacy--or, if necessary, go in with little help. Yet a sizable majority--65% according to one poll--of American voters indicate that they are reluctant to start shooting without broad international backing.
Why are so many of America's friends balking? The antiwar sentiment among Washington's presumed allies reflects a deep reservoir of misgiving that stretches from immediate doubts to long-term philosophical differences--from disagreement over the purpose of inspections and the threshold of war to worries that the U.S. doesn't really care if it has allies. Of course, Bush can count on loyal friends like the leaders of Spain, Italy, Poland and Britain to stand by his side, despite the disapproval of their citizens. And some of the vocal opponents, like France and Russia, have lucrative commercial or financial ties with Iraq that they fear a U.S.-led war might sunder.
Nonetheless, the tensions surfacing last week reflect strong popular opposition across Europe that won't necessarily fade away even if reluctant governments eventually opt to go along with the world's superpower. Here's a dissection of allied anxieties:
1 WE NEED TO SEE MORE PROOF ON IRAQ