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Gore has decided to break cover at a moment when his party is in full retreat, a leaderless army that in its disarray risks solidifying its status as a minority. Since the election, the Democrats have veered left with the selection of a San Francisco liberal, Nancy Pelosi, as their House leader. And they have veered right with a prompt post-election capitulation to the President on a homeland-security bill. It is a family feud over whether to sharpen or blur their differences with Bush.
Is Gore, still scarred from his 2000 loss, the man to give direction to a party that has lost its way? It is a vexing question, not just for the Democrats, but for Gore himself. He says he will decide over the next six weeks or so whether to make another run for the White House. He has in recent days begun phoning former aides and key supporters, some of whom he hasn't contacted for months. His questions define the calculation: What do you make of the election? What does it mean for me? He says he is prepared for another murderous campaign. But the big question--Will Al Gore run?--turns on one that everyone is asking in public but that he raises only in private: Can Al Gore win?
Our polling has good news and bad news for him. In a TIME/CNN survey conducted last week, 61% of Democrats said they would like to see Gore run for President in 2004, so at the moment, the nomination is his to lose. Against the six most likely challengers (Joe Lieberman, Tom Daschle, John Kerry, Dick Gephardt, John Edwards and Howard Dean), Gore is favored by a whopping 53% of Democrats. (No one else gets more than 10%.) If Hillary Rodham Clinton's name is included, it becomes a contest, though Gore would outpoint her 36% to 26%. Barring some slip in the early 2004 tests in New Hampshire or Iowa, Gore is likely to prevail in a front-loaded primary system that gives the candidate with the greatest name recognition a big advantage.
But if Gore ran today against Bush, the poll shows, Bush would win handily, 57% to 40%. That suggests that no matter how much Al Gore has changed as a candidate since 2000, the mood of the country would have to undergo a much more dramatic shift over the next 24 months for Gore to topple Bush. Give Gore credit for speaking so bluntly to TIME about the issues, but as of today, candor is not the problem: unless Bush stumbles badly on the economy and the war on terrorism next year, Gore will not get the traction he hopes for by speaking out on the issues that matter most to him.
The image Gore wants the world to see is of a man who in defeat has a clearer idea of who he is and what he stands for. He pronounces himself "over it," and according to people close to him, he is generally more relaxed, more comfortable in his skin. "He has been less process oriented and less programmed than I've ever seen him," says former aide Elaine Kamarck. "He has a much more easygoing attitude toward the world than I ever knew him to have." One clue as to how he got there may be a little book in the Arlington, Va., house where he and Tipper have spent most of the past two years--The Meditation Year: A Seasonal Guide to Contemplation, Relaxation and Visualization. "Both Tipper and I have meditated for quite a while," he says, "and we both believe in regular prayer."