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Discounters and majors alike will provide more direct flights between popular destinations, but the hub system will continue to play a major role because feeding passengers from smaller cities into central hubs is still the only way to move people from Sacramento, Calif., to Sarasota, Fla., or Birmingham, Ala., to Los Angeles at a reasonable price. American says the average layover will increase by 10 to 12 minutes, but many travelers could spend an extra 30 minutes to two hours sitting in the airport bar or browsing the newsstand, especially as airlines cut back the number of connecting flights. "I'm not sure running an airline for operational efficiency at the cost of customer satisfaction is the way to go," says a rival airline executive. But look on the bright side: lines at the ticket counter and security checkpoints should be shorter, and there should be fewer delays and a smaller chance your luggage will get lost.
OPEN YOUR WALLET
After being pummeled by the discounters, the major carriers might be expected to make a better effort to compete on price. And at least initially--as hurting airlines do anything to lure passengers on board and bankrupt carriers have more flexibility to trim costs--that may be the case. But in the long run, as the major carriers further cut capacity and eventually consolidate, it's likely that most domestic fares--which declined on average almost 10% in June and are now near 15-year lows--will start to inch their way back up. One reason is that in order to increase the appeal of their business fares, airlines have to make up some of that lost revenue on the low end. At the very least, the majors may learn from the discounters and simplify their complex fare structures.
Passengers stranded on less popular routes not served by discounters will probably have their wallets hit especially hard. But as low-cost airlines like Southwest and JetBlue go after one another, certain direct fares should fall. Just last month JetBlue announced service from Long Beach to Oakland, Calif., starting at $19 each way, a price that Southwest matched in 48 hours.
KEEP SAVING THOSE MILES
One bright spot may be passengers with thousands of frequent-flyer miles. Carriers like United and US Airways or the relatively healthier trio of Continental, Delta and Northwest are trying to strike code-sharing agreements, which theoretically give flyers a wider choice of airlines on which to redeem their miles. But as carriers slash the number of flights and look to maximize every penny, there will be fewer seats available. Some airlines may even choose to award the number of miles based on the ticket price paid. One thing there will definitely be fewer of is first-and business-class seats. First class, which is filled mostly with upgrades, is on its way out, as evidenced by American's plans to cut it on flights to Hawaii and some European cities, including Madrid, Rome and Zurich.
PACK A LUNCH
Now that the airlines are trimming their schedules and moving to smaller fleets, odds are that you're going to have even less legroom than before. Many observers think the prolonged slump could force American, its denials notwithstanding, to reconfigure its coach seats, the roomiest in the industry after a two-year, multimillion-dollar redesign.