Jim Gilmore, left, and Mark Warner
Republican: Jim Gilmore (Former Governor)
Democrat: Mark Warner (Former Governor)
Almost from the day long-serving moderate Republican John Warner announced his retirement, Democrats believed they could pick up the seat (which would give Virginia two Democratic senators for the first time since 1970). Their candidate, former governor Mark Warner (no relation), left office in 2006 with an approval rating above 70%, and has yet to lose any of that popularity. His opponent, Republican Jim Gilmore, was Warner's direct predecessor as governor, but Gilmore cannot compare in popularity or fundraising ability to Warner. Gilmore's term was marked by a long and messy fight over lower taxes and resulting budget cuts, and many observers think he is too conservative for the increasingly moderate state. Throughout the campaign, which has been dominated by clashes over energy policy and taxes, Warner has maintained a double-digit lead.
2004 Presidential Vote: Bush 54%, Kerry 45%- James Downie and Marti Covington/Washington