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In some quarters, the European Union is viewed as a conspiracy of French socialists. And indeed, France's Socialist Party (PS) has traditionally been one of the biggest boosters of the E.U. That's why the current polarizing battle within the PS over a referendum, scheduled for Dec. 1, to accept or reject the E.U. constitution is so puzzling.

Last week, the standing-room-only crowd that packed the Centre Rabelais theater in the southern French city of Montpellier went wild as Socialist Party leader François Hollande and former Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn extolled the merits of the treaty. Mention of party brethren who back the no vote drew disapproving groans. "This is a show of force," explained Montpellier shop owner and Socialist Party member Jean-Claude Arnel. "We're here to demonstrate just how big our commitment to Europe is."

Why so much controversy now over the constitution when President Jacques Chirac has said that the country as a whole won't vote on the document until well into next year? For starters, the outcome of the Socialists' vote, expected over the weekend, could be a harbinger of things to come — both within France and across the E.U. To be ratified, the constitution must be approved by each member state. A rejection, or even a narrow yes vote, from the Socialists will almost certainly embolden opponents of the document in places like Britain and Denmark, and accelerate Euroskepticism elsewhere.

The topic took center stage at last week's meeting of European Socialist leaders in Madrid. "Voting yes for the European constitution is a step forward; voting no is a step backward toward crisis," Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero advised the French Socialists. Hollande agrees: "The European left, Europeans in general, and all our fellow French citizens have waited to see how we vote," he told Time after the Montpellier rally. "It's the constitution's first test by a large party in a founding E.U. nation, and the result is important for its future." The other reason the referendum is crucial, of course, is that the result is important for Hollande's future, too. Hollande's rise in the PS has been as unassuming as it has been steady. Tapped in 1997 to occupy the party leadership that Lionel Jospin vacated to become Prime Minister, Hollande found himself captain of a sinking ship after Jospin's presidential bid unexpectedly imploded in mid-2002. Hollande nevertheless forged party unity in the notoriously fractious PS. But the party's fortunes only revived last spring, with stunning wins in regional and European elections, thanks to voters eager to punish Chirac's ruling conservatives. Leading the yes side to victory would reinforce Hollande's bona fides as leader. With the party's renewed energy has come revived competition for the Socialist candidacy in the 2007 presidential race. Some of Hollande's colleagues in the yes camp — including Strauss-Kahn, former Culture Minister Jack Lang and Paris Mayor Bertrand Delanoë — hanker after the presidency, too. But Laurent Fabius, a former Prime Minister under François Mitterrand in the mid-'80s, is spearheading the no campaign as part of his own presidential bid. He argues that the constitution favors unfettered free markets at the expense of social policy, public service and government intervention. Fabius is appealing to the party's left wing, which includes union members and harder-line leftists, and is thought to comprise about 30% of the PS's over 120,000 members. He's also signaling that he'll be a more effective opponent of the conservatives' reforms. Supporters of the constitution like Hollande admit it's flawed, but claim it can be amended. They say rejecting it would marginalize the party. "This vote determines whether the PS can retain its identity and legitimacy as a constructive European force and a party of responsible reform," says Strauss-Kahn. "The treaty isn't perfect, but we can improve it." Fabius' camp advocates trying to change the document before approving it. "We're in politics to defend ideals and address injustices, not accept flaws and insufficiencies as fated," says PS parliamentarian and no backer Manuel Valls. The outcome of the vote will show whether support for the constitution in this founding E.U. nation is foundering.

• BRUCE CRUMLEY | Montpellier
• A French Socialist vote on the E.U. constitution could have repercussions around Europe