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If global warming is real, experts have been saying for decades, then basic climate science dictates that it should show up earliest and proceed most rapidly in the Arctic. But even the experts were stunned at the results of a study released last week. After four years of intensive research by more than 250 scientists, a prestigious multinational body called the Arctic Council reported that the region has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the globe over the past 50 years. Arctic Ocean ice has shrunk by as much as 20%, snow cover has diminished on land, and the permafrost underlying the tundra has become less stable.

And it's getting worse. By 2100, the report predicts, temperatures could rise further still, endangering indigenous Arctic ways of life, destabilizing roads that support mining and oil drilling, disrupting ecosystems, shrinking the ranges of many animals and threatening the very existence of some species, including the polar bear.

The Impact Will Be Felt In many Ways
COASTAL AREAS
As protective sea ice disappears and permafrost underlying the land's surface softens, coastal erosion will speed up dramatcially. Floods will inundate marshes and estuaries, damaging both human and animal habitats

ARCTIC POPULATIONS
Indigenous people from Alaska to Canada to Siberia rely on fish, polar bears, seals and caribou for food, clothing and trade. As warming imperils these animals, it also threatens a way of life that has been unchanged for centuries

VEGETATION
Rising temperatures will let forests expand north into areas that now support only scrubby flora. Trees absorb more heat than bushes, speeding up local warming. Loss of tundra will also rob many animals of breeding and feeding grounds

WILDLIFE
Seals rest and give birth on sea ice; polar bears use it to stalk seals. Loss of ice will threaten both. On land, disruption of nesting areas could reduce populations of some migratory birds by as much as 50% by the year 2100

But Is It All Bad?
NEW SEA ROUTES
A drastic reduction in polar ice during summer months could open reliable shipping lanes along the northern coast of Russia and Canada, making transportation cheaper and increasing access to oil and other natural resources (admittedly a mixed blessing). But there might also be more icebergs, which could limit the effectiveness of Arctic shipping

OTHER ADVANTAGES
Some species may actually benefit from global warming. Cod and arctic char, both commercially important fish, could expand their range. Some crops, including barley and alfalfa, could be grown in areas that are too cold today

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

• Michael D. Lemonick