Quotes of the Day

Electoral Math
Conventional wisdom holds that if most states go just as they did in 2000, the 2004 winner must take two of these three: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. But Bush could take one and win by snagging Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa; Kerry cou prevail by taking one plus Colorado and New Hampshire

WISCONSIN Gore won in 2000 by 0.22%

Wisconsin has long been known as liberal, but it almost went to Bush four years ago. Bush needs a big turnout in the conservative Milwaukee suburbs and eastern cities like Oshkosh and Green Bay. Kerry hopes for big numbers in Milwaukee, Madison and western farm towns. One X factor: congressional Republicans have opposed extending a subsidy for dairy farmers.

IOWA Gore won in 2000 by 0.31%

Iowans know Kerry well; he spent much of last winter there resurrecting his campaign. But Bush is betting a Massachusetts Senator can't appeal to Iowa farmers. Kerry needs to win big in the Des Moines area and eastern cities like Davenport and Cedar Rapids. Bush will almost surely win the western third of the state. State officials estimate that 25% of voters will cast early or absentee ballots.

NEW MEXICO Gore won in 2000 by 0.06%

Viva Bush! Unidos con Kerry! More than 42% of New Mexicans are Hispanic, and both candidates are furiously courting them. Bush won 32% of the Hispanic vote last time and is aiming to get to 40%. But Governor Bill Richardson is a strong Kerry ally. Kerry will win the northern third of the state, while Bush will take the southeastern third, known as "Little Texas." Both will try to take Albuquerque.

PENNSYLVANIA Gore won in 2000 by 4.17%

Pennsylvania is really three states. Philadelphia is part of the liberal Northeast, Pittsburgh is Midwestern, and the center of the state is rural and conservative. Philly could be the key: Kerry needs to win by a big margin by turning out 35,000 newly registered voters. He will also try to win the Pittsburgh area. Bush will try to prevail in the Philly suburbs. He's even courting the Amish.

OHIO Bush won in 2000 by 3.51%

Al Gore gave up on Ohio in October 2000. Kerry's not walking away. And with the state economy weak, Bush's approval rating sank to 43% in a recent poll. Bothe sides will try to win in Columbus, Dayton and Canton. Kerry needs a big turnout in Cleveland and Toledo; Bush needs it in the northwestern Farm Belt and the Cincinnati suburbs. Legal fights are already erupting over electionprocedures

FLORIDA Bush won in 2000 by 0.00009%

People can't even agree who won the state last time; Democrats have already filed nine lawsuits this year challenging election rules. Kerry needs a big turnout in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach. Bush needs big numbers in the Panhandle and the southern Gulf Coast. Both sides want to win the area stretching from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona Beach — the fastest-growing area in the state.

• Mitch Frank