Quotes of the Day

Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone interviewing was conducted September 7 – 9

Last week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week.

Putting this into perspective, just a month ago, post-Democratic convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically significant lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.

Vote for President?

(Likely Voters)

	Sept. 7-Sept. 9	Aug. 31-Sept. 2	Aug. 24-26	Aug. 3-5
Bush	52%	52%	46%	43%
Kerry	41%	41%	44%	48%
Nader	3%	3%	5%	4%
Don't know	3%	3%	3%	3%

With almost two months left, and the candidate debates upcoming, it is still too soon to conclude whether the Bush bounce will translate into continuing momentum or fall back down to the ground. Clearly, this Time Poll finds no signs of Bush erosion so far. By contrast, Kerry’s standing vs. Bush on key issues, such as the economy and fighting terrorism, have slipped. Moreover, a late August Time Poll, taken before the Republican Convention, captured the first signs of Kerry slippage following blistering attacks on Kerry’s Vietnam service.

Historically, bounces often do disappear. For example, Jimmy Carter’s 10 point bounce after the 1980 Democratic Convention evaporated quickly. Presidential debates have also been turning points in some Presidential elections, starting with the first televised debate, Kennedy vs. Nixon, in 1960. The upcoming debates could well sway the vote. Therefore, the race remains in flux in spite of recent setbacks to the Kerry camp.

Kerry’s Woes

Troubling for Kerry is that the Republicans have continued to shift the nation's agenda toward terrorism, a Bush stronghold, and away from the economy, as the voters’ decisive issue. Terrorism is now at 26%, up 8 points from early August, among registered voters. Republicans, both at the New York convention last week and since, have pounded Kerry on the terrorism issue. The economy, long a Kerry strength, has slipped to second place, at 24%, down 3 points since early August among registered voters.

Most important Issues in Vote Decision

(Registered Voters)

	Sept.7-Sept.9	Aug. 31-Sept. 2	Aug. 3-5	Jul. 20-22
War on Terrorism	26%	24%	18%	18%
Economy	24%	25%	27%	27%
Situation in Iraq	17%	17%	19%	21%
Moral Values Issues	17%	16%	18%	16%
Health Care	9%	11%	11%	2%

Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a 6 point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month ago, Kerry had the edge, 51% - 42%.

Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on handing of the following issues:

• War on terrorism: Bush is up 23 percentage points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early August.
• Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August.
• Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August.

Kerry now has only a small edge on health care, 47% - 42%, falling from an 18 point margin in early August. He’s now just even up with Bush, 47% Bush – 44% Kerry, on “understanding the needs of people like yourself,” after leading Bush by 15 points in early August.

Key Electability Indicators

Bush’s ratings on three key questions tied to electability have risen in recent weeks, but Bush still gets tentative scores on two of the three.

• Job rating: Bush is now at 56% approve – 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for re-electing incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability just at 50%.

• Deserves re-election?: Bush has cracked the 50% mark for the first time in recent Poll history, with 52% saying he deserves re-election, while 45% saying it’s time for someone new. Just a month ago, Bush was down by 12 points on deserving re-election.

• Right Direction?: Voters are now almost evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 46% - 49%. However that’s up from 44% right direction – 51% wrong track in early August.

Bush Favorability Up, Kerry Down

Bush’s favorability scores have risen significantly, to 54% favorable - 38% unfavorable. In early August, his favorability was even, 45% favorable – 45% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Kerry’s unfavorable ratings have increased significantly. His favorable – unfavorable scores are now even, 43% favorable – 42% unfavorable. In early August, Kerry favorable – unfavorable ratio was almost 2 to 1, 53% favorable – 29% unfavorable.

Bush Post-Republican Convention

Bush’s scores on a battery of character and performance questions improved significantly last week. The Poll finds no damage so far from recently published allegations that Bush evaded duties while in the National Guard during the Vietnam War. Comparing his standing in the Time pre-Republican Convention poll in late August to this week’s post-Convention poll, we find that Bush burnished his image among registered voters in the following areas:

• Likeability: 70% now say it “accurately describes” Bush, compared to 65% pre-Convention.
• Understands the issues: 61% say it accurately describes Bush, compared to 54% pre-Convention.
• Cares about people like you: 53% now, up from 50% pre-Convention.
• Has good judgment: 54% now, up from 50% pre-Convention.
• Has clear plans to solve America’s problems: 49% now, up from 44%.

Iraq

Voters remain divided on Iraq. A slim majority, 53% now says the U.S. was “right to go to war” with Iraq, but 43% say it was wrong. In early August voters divided evenly, 47% - 47% on Iraq.

Voters are also evenly divided about whether actions in Iraq have made the world safer, 44% safer – 46% more dangerous. In early August, a narrow majority of voters (52% more dangerous – 38% safer) believed that the actions made the world more dangerous.

Wither the Gender Gap?

This week’s Time Poll finds surprising Kerry slippage among females – long a Democratic mainstay. Females are now evenly split between Bush (45%) and Kerry (44%). Males heavily favor Bush, 56% - 34%. In early August, females gave Kerry a sizeable 50%-36% lead over Bush.

“Movable” Voter Pool Shrinking

This week’s Time Poll also finds slight shrinkage in the number of “movable” likely voters, that is, likely voters who are either undecided (3%) or say they might change their minds after choosing a candidate in the poll (12%). Moveables are now down to 15%, from 19% in late August.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone September 7 – 9, 2004 among a random sample of 1,219 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,013 reported registered voters and 857 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

• Likely voters reported party identifications are: 34% Republican, 35% Democratic, 22% Independents.
• Registered voters party affiliations are: 31% Republican, 32% Democratic, 26% Independent.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at www.srbi.com.

• Mark Schulman
• Kerry remains behind, 52%-41%, in a three-way race