Just as Greek Cypriots were getting ready to join the European Union, they voted down a United Nations plan to unify their island — killing what may have been the last chance to heal Cyprus' 30-year division. Their Turkish-Cypriot neighbors were left out of the E.U accession bash. So why were the Turks celebrating last week? Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the "most successful event" for Turkish diplomacy in 50 years; Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül declared the start of a "new era." Their joy springs from the fact that Turkey's real goal is not a reunited Cyprus (though that would have been fine) but its own membership of the E.U. And the Turkish Cypriots' hefty vote in favor of the U.N. plan could help them get there.

In December, the E.U. will decide whether to open talks to admit Turkey to the club; once those talks begin, it will be difficult to deny Turkey its place — even though several European countries, notably France, have made it clear negotiations could drag on for

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nginx/1.14.0 (Ubuntu) 10 to 15 years. Why? Because Turkey is a 98% Muslim country with 68.6 million people, more than any European country except Germany — meaning Turkey would have real clout in population-based E.U. votes. That has stirred unease among Europeans worried that the country's admission will dilute the Union's common (read: Christian) values. In 2002 former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing declared that admitting Turkey meant "the end of the European Union." Nevertheless, a report on Turkey's progress in meeting E.U. membership criteria could be drafted as early as next month, and Turkey is in the final stages of reforms aimed at bringing the country's legislation in line with E.U. norms. "We have entered the critical period," Gül said.

Until last week, Cyprus had been a major stumbling block to Turkey's E.U. ambitions. The E.U., U.N. and U.S. pressured Turkey to use its influence on Turkish Cyprus to bring about a yes vote. "People would say, 'You may be fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria [E.U. membership conditions laid out in Denmark in 1993], but what about Cyprus?'" said Gül. "Now Cyprus is no longer an obstacle." No sooner had the last no vote on the U.N. plan been counted than Turkey was reminding the world that, despite opposition at home, it had pulled out all the stops to get to yes. As a reward, E.U. foreign ministers voted to ease Turkish Cypriots' economic isolation, provide j259 million in aid, and open the new de facto E.U. border on the island to Turkish Cypriot goods.

But Turkey wants a bigger prize. In Cologne last week, Erdogan pressed Turkey's case with a mixture of mild warnings and warm reassurances. Shutting Turkey out could encourage anti-Western forces in his country, he said, adding that Turkey would not be a burden to the E.U. "but a new stimulus for economic dynamism." Erdogan's desire to join the E.U. is rooted in economics — even the start of negotiations could sharply boost investment — as well as the need to cement democratic institutions in Turkey, where his pro-Islamic ruling party is at odds with the military and security establishment. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder reaffirmed his own commitment to Turkey's European dream. "You can rely on Germany's willingness to keep its word," he told Erdogan in Cologne.

Erdogan can't, however, rely on French President Jacques Chirac, who acknowledged last week that Turkey had a "European vocation," but added that its entry into the E.U. would depend on "conditions that have not, today, been brought together," remarks in part aimed at soothing domestic French concerns about E.U. enlargement. Chirac's conservative party, the Union for a Popular Movement, said it will campaign openly against Turkish membership in European parliamentary elections in June. Meanwhile, German conservatives have suggested a "privileged partnership" for Turkey instead of full-fledged membership, an idea Ankara rejects. Washington and London, for their part, want the E.U. to embrace Turkey as an example to other nations in the Middle East that Islam and democracy can coexist. Turkey's "presence among us," British Prime Minister Tony Blair wrote last week in Le Monde, "will throw a bridge to the Islamic world." Construction is under way on the Turkish side, but they can't finish it alone.

• ANDREW PURVIS
• As 10 new members join the E.U., Turkey pushes for its own admission