Quotes of the Day

Frontrunner John Kerry’s hopes for a clean, quick end to the Democrats’ foreshortened primary season dimmed on Tuesday night with North Carolina Senator John Edwards’ decisive victory in the South Carolina primary and his close second in Oklahoma. With five more wins under Kerry’s belt, it is more than ever his race to lose. But the tight finish in Oklahoma suggests that not all Democrats have bought into the idea that a liberalish Senator from Massachusetts is the party’s best hope against George Bush in November.

        In many ways, the most interesting story of the night was the near- flameout of retired General Wesley Clark, who was, for a brief period last fall, leading the national polls. Clark had bet heavily on this night, spending more than any other candidate in recent weeks on advertising in six of the seven states that held contests. (Missouri, where he did not compete seriously, was the exception.) Tuesday's territory seemed tailor-made to test his claim that he could appeal to Southerners, moderates and swing voters, but he found little traction anywhere. It seems likely that Clark will soon be out of the race, following  2000 Vice Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman, whose slim hopes of getting life support from a victory in Delaware were not realized.

        Howard Dean was another candidate who had once thought this would be his big night. He had ads running in all seven states as early as last fall, back when he was considered to have a good shot at winning both Iowa and New Hampshire, and his strategists had talked openly of February 3 as the night he could all but clinch the nomination. Instead, it marked nine consecutive losses, and his new strategy of a breakout in Wisconsin on February 17 looks dodgier than ever.

        Only Edwards seems to have even a slim shot of unseating Kerry. His campaign hopes to follow with two more wins next Tuesday in Virginia and Tennessee. But the more he counts on these southern victories, the more he risks being tagged as a regional candidate — and worse, a regional candidate from a part of the country the Democrats have virtually no chance of winning in the fall. It is not exactly a formula for the kind of momentum he would need going into the big states — among them New York and California — on March 2. That’s why his strategists are now considering putting more muscle in Michigan, in hopes of making a decent showing there on Saturday. He met with representatives of 18 unions, including Teamsters President James Hoffa, in South Carolina on Tuesday (Kerry will have his own meeting with the Teamsters on Thursday). And he has put increasing emphasis on trade and jobs over the past few days — a message designed to appeal to the industrial unions whose support is up for grabs now that Congressman Dick Gephardt is out of the race.

        The more this becomes a two-man race between Kerry and Edwards, however, the more difficult it will be for Edwards to maintain the upbeat, positive strategy that has gotten him this far. Edwards is not going to win the battle on gravitas or experience, so he has to draw more distinct lines on the issues. That makes it much harder to keep a campaign on the high road. But he comes away from Tuesday night with one prize already in hand: Despite his protestations that he’s not interested in the second spot on the ticket, it’s one race in which John Edwards the odds-on favorite.

• Karen Tumulty
• Hoping for a knockout, John Kerry wins points but still faces a strong surge from John Edwards