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For decades Japan has effectively been a one-party state ruled by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). But last month's parliamentary elections changed the nation's political landscape—perhaps for good. Though the LDP kept control of the government, voters punished it for its failure to reform the economy by handing it a smaller mandate and by giving the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) large gains in the Diet. Suddenly, pundits were holding forth about two-party democracy breaking out in Japan. Actually, they should have been talking about a three-party system.

Little known outside Japan, the New Komeito is an offshoot of the country's largest lay Buddhist organization, Soka Gakkai. In the elections, the New Komeito was the only party other than the DPJ to pick up more seats, increasing its bloc from 31 to 34. But the New Komeito's influence radiates far wider than those numbers indicate. As most smaller parties drift into irrelevance or disband completely, the New Komeito, as a member of the LDP's ruling coalition, is cementing its role as kingmaker.

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The LDP has come to rely on the New Komeito for far more than the buffer it contributes to the LDP's majority in the Diet. Because of its religious ties, which help create an obedient rank and file, the New Komeito has one of the last great vote-gathering machines in Japan. Political analysts estimate that the New Komeito delivers between 20,000 and 30,000 votes in every major constituency (and many elections have been decided by only a few thousand ballots). Some 80% of LDP candidates who received New Komeito endorsement this time around were elected. In contrast, 55% of LDP candidates without the New Komeito imprimatur won their races. Says Jun Iio, professor of government at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo: "The LDP cannot remain the ruling party without the New Komeito."

Takenori Kanzaki, the New Komeito leader, says his party's support for the LDP won't change—for now. But the alliance is an uneasy one. The New Komeito has always wrapped itself in righteousness (its name means "clean government"). Its core principles include support for urban nonunion employees of small and medium-size companies, pacifism, and social welfare even at the cost of economic growth—planks that have never been the LDP's priorities. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi insists that though the LDP and the New Komeito "might have different views over certain issues, we'll coordinate over policies."

But two of the issues on which the parties disagree the most—pension reform and national security—could come to a head soon. The New Komeito made the preservation of a generous pension system its top campaign issue, and last week the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry (headed by New Komeito Diet member Chikara Sakaguchi) submitted a plan calling for an increase in the government's share of pension financing, with the added expenses to be funded by canceling a series of income tax cuts. Many prominent LDP members claim that this scheme will put Japan's fragile economic recovery at risk. Japan's scheduled 2004 dispatch of troops to Iraq, opposed by many in the New Komeito, is another potential political battleground.

Meanwhile, the DPJ intends to exploit New Komeito's religious affiliations in attacking the ruling coalition. In a country without a strong evangelical tradition, the outreach efforts of the New Komeito's parent, Soka Gakkai, have earned it a reputation among many nonfollowers as a band of zealots.

This is not news to Katsuei Hirasawa, an outspoken LDP Diet member from western Tokyo's 17th ward. He says many LDP members are as uncomfortable as he is about being associated with a party that has such explicit religious ties, but few speak out. "They keep their silence because they need the New Komeito," he says. The New Komeito, for its part, is in a position to speak loudly—and it will certainly be heard.

• Jim Frederick | Tokyo
• After last month's general elections, the religious party New Komeito has become a potent political force