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When he walks into a room, Rex Tillerson radiates competence and stability. In a world grown weary of the shenanigans of energy companies like Enron, the oilman commands respect — and earns it — by pumping twice as much oil out of the ground as Kuwait does. As ExxonMobil's senior vice president for exploration and production, he was responsible for 80% of the $11 billion profit generated last year by the world's largest private oil company. The challenge: Can Tillerson, 51, ride that success to become CEO?

ExxonMobil's reigning chief, Lee Raymond, 65, has extended his stay on the job ostensibly to handle fallout from the 1999 merger that created the $230 billion behemoth. But in recent months the Irving, Texas, company has been giving Tillerson and fellow senior V.P. Ed Galante, the man responsible for refining and marketing, more face time with Wall Street. Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit suggests Tillerson may prevail: "The company's future is predicated on success in oil and gas exploration and production."

Tillerson plays a key role in ExxonMobil's efforts to find new fields, especially in Russia, where he is well connected to officialdom, all the way up to President Vladimir Putin. If he can grab a greater presence there, he will help assure the company's future — and maybe his own.

• Cathy Booth Thomas/Dallas