After a three-year nuclear winter for initial public offerings (IPOs), some buds are finally pushing through the rubble. No one expects this scorched corner of the stock market to flower quickly, and IPOs are high-risk investments even in the best of times. Yet the allure of getting in early on a stock that just might pay your toddler's way through college is undeniable and if you're ever going to plow this field, now is the time to do it.
Why? The late 1990s, the manic period most people associate with IPOs, were all about founders cashing out of profitless ventures. Yes, IPO prices doubled overnight in that supercharged period. But most of the stocks ultimately crashed and burned. Today's IPOs are well grounded; most of the companies already make money, and they're raising new capital on investor-friendly terms to reinvest for growth.
Consider SigmaTel, which makes computer chips used in MP3 players. It's in a hot field, it has survived for a decade, and it turned profitable this year. Two-thirds of the $150 million raised by its Sept. 18 IPO will stay with the company to fund things like research and development. (Yes, its honchos will net a bundle, but they have actually earned it.) The stock made its debut at $15 and now trades in the low $20s. This is fairly typical of the kind of company selling initial shares and of the market's receptiveness.
Some of today's IPOs are even more seasoned like Journal Communications, a Midwestern newspaper and media company, and National Financial Partners, a financial-services firm run by Jessica Bibliowicz, daughter of Citigroup chairman Sandy Weill. Both make money, and both have seen their shares rise in a modest but steady fashion. "Very few companies today are able to raise money on just a wish," says Jay Chandler, head of equity syndication at Merrill Lynch. "That late-'90s-style IPO market is not open for business."
Which is why you might want to tiptoe back into the IPO tulips with dollars you've marked for high risk. After tumbling to their slowest pace in 30 years (just 10 IPOs came to market in the first half of the year), IPOs have begun a nascent recovery. Buoyed by an economic recovery, 18 companies sold initial shares in the third quarter, and a notable backlog is building. In every cycle, the best companies go public first. In general, these are companies that were strong enough to survive the weak economy. Also, investment bankers realize they need a string of solid deals to build investor confidence.
There's still plenty of risk. On the docket are a dozen unproven biotech firms. Money-losing companies like Anchor Glass and Red Envelope have already slipped through the IPO window. Yet even these outfits are a cut above the dogs of the '90s. The biotechs are nearing approval for new treatments. Anchor, which makes bottles for Snapple, shed pension and health-care costs in bankruptcy court. Red Envelope is an online gift store that should be profitable next quarter, says Linda Killian, a partner at the IPO research firm Renaissance Capital.
Some things never change. The best IPOs are reserved for brokers' best clients. So establish a relationship now. At W.R. Hambrecht, you don't need a broker only an online account to participate in the firm's "open IPO" system, which parcels out shares based on who bids most. Another option is to invest in a mutual fund that buys IPOs, like the IPO Plus Aftermarket fund, up 36% this year (caution: high expenses and a volatile history). Or you could just stay with a proven aggressive-growth fund like Pimco RCM Global Technology (up 69% this year) or a rounded small-stock fund like T. Rowe Price New Horizons (up 37%). Not every bud flowers, and that's doubly true with IPOs.