Quotes of the Day

This will be the final battle." so predicts a civilian member of the Acehnese negotiating team that tried for months to reach an agreement that would prevent all-out warfare in Indonesia's westernmost province. He doesn't want his name published because he fears reprisals against his family, particularly because he believes that there is virtually no chance the two sides—the Indonesian military and the separatist guerrillas of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)—can reach a compromise to prevent renewed fighting. Indonesian troops are already flooding into Aceh. Ultimately, some 50,000 are expected in the province, poised to launch an offensive designed to end the 27-year conflict once and for all. The rebels had until May 12 to lay down their arms and forswear independence, but recent reports state that GAM leaders have ordered fighters to take up defensive positions. "The Indonesians are throwing everything they have into this," says the negotiator, "and GAM knows if they allow themselves to be crushed they won't be able to rise again for another 20 years."

Aceh's residents have already paid an appalling price. More than 10,000 have died in the fighting and countless others have been raped, tortured and robbed of their homes and livelihoods. But their lot is of little concern to the combatants. GAM claims to want independence; the military intends "to defend the country's unity at all costs," says Defense Ministry Director of Strategic Planning, General Sudrajat. But the situation is muddied by economics: both sides profit through smuggling, extortion, illegal logging and the sale of marijuana. Peace would threaten cash flow. "Both GAM and the government are more interested in saving face than saving the lives of the Acehnese people," says Ghazali Abbas Adan, an Acehnese representative to the People's Consultative Assembly, Indonesia's highest legislative body.

Many top Indonesian generals also long to regain their once-preeminent role in government and policy making, which eroded significantly after the 1998 fall of Suharto. The military of late has already been reasserting itself as senior generals helped author a bill now before Parliament that, if passed, would permit them to act without presidential approval. Trials for the killing and pillaging in East Timor in 1999 and the 2002 murder of Papuan independence movement leader Theys Eluay failed to hold any top military brass accountable. (Army chief Ryamizard Ryacudu said the soldiers convicted of killing Theys deserved medals instead of the light prison sentences they received.) And with a presidential election next year, leading politicians are loath to defy the generals. In this environment, says Sidney Jones, who heads the International Crisis Group's Jakarta office, generals like Ryamizard see a crushing victory in Aceh as critical to reclaiming the military's former lofty status. GAM, sadly, is the perfect adversary. The rebels squandered most of the goodwill in Aceh by extorting funds from civilians and committing scores of their own atrocities. GAM has about 5,000 troops, but few analysts believe the military can deliver the decisive blow top generals are predicting. All that's certain, sighs Jones, "is that the ordinary Acehnese will be the ones to suffer most. It's going to be a terrible, bloody mess."

• Simon Elegant / Jakarta
• Clouds gather in Aceh as Indonesian government and rebel troops dig in for a bloody fight