Quotes of the Day

Anton Boerner, president of the BGA, Germany's federation of exporters and wholesalers, is jittery. "When you listen to Mr. Rumsfeld comparing Germany to Libya and Cuba, you don't need much imagination to see that we must be careful," he says. And he's not alone. There's a growing fear among German, French and Belgian businesspeople that their countries' dovish stance on Iraq could harm trade with America. In Belgium, where diamonds account for 25% of trade with the U.S., the industry has warned of "disturbing" signals from American buyers. In France, cheese dealers report falling sales and a raft of angry messages from U.S. customers. In Germany — where the U.S. is the country's second-largest trading partner, with $56 billion in imports — business groups are launching a war of their own, planning "road shows" and taking out full-page ads in the New York Times. But is this all just much ado about nothing? The U.S. government does use its purchasing power as both a carrot and a stick, but formal sanctions just won't happen. And private corporations, like GE, got their "multinational" tag for a reason — they'll sign contracts wherever they get the best deal. As for average U.S. consumers, they've shown little compunction about buying diamonds that fund bloody militias in Africa, so in the long term they're unlikely to lose their appetite for flash rocks over a mere Belgian waffle over NATO.

Can Big Oil Keep Green?
It takes nerve to pour $6.75 billion into Russia — more than double the total amount of foreign direct investment in the country last year. So the oil industry took notice last week when British Petroleum paid that sum for a 50% stake in oil company TNK, making the biggest purchase of Russian equity ever. But just as BP was showing its faith in Russia, environmental groups were claiming the company had become an apostate to the green causes it once championed. TNK has some notoriously polluted assets, like the Ryazan refinery and the Samotlor field in western Siberia, where 6,500 hectares of land have been heavily contaminated. That won't impress groups like the U.K.-based World Wildlife Fund, which recently decided to sell its BP shares because of environmental concerns in Alaska and elsewhere. Emita Neville, head of advocacy at WWF, argues that BP is "more about the rhetoric of 'beyond petroleum' than the reality." The 51,000 shares sold by the WWF will make no financial dent in a company worth billions, but any perception that one of the few "green" oil companies has lost its way could sting. Still, spokesmen insist BP deserves its green stripes, and that its operations in Russia will only confirm them: "Bringing Western standards to Russia, in terms of the environment, can only be a good thing" — assuming the Russians actually go along.

Orange Crush
When France Telecom CEO Thierry Breton speaks these days, heads roll. Desperate to cut the company's €68 billion debt, Breton announced last week that the company will shed 7,500 French jobs this year, rising to 22,000 worldwide — 10% of its total — by 2005. But the rank and file won't be the only ones looking for work: Graham Howe, deputy chief executive and co-founder of U.K. subsidiary Orange, announced he would step down after Breton unexpectedly gave the top job to Orange board member Sol Trujillo. Howe was the third top Orange executive lost in 10 weeks. His exit may signal that Breton is consolidating control of the group, which France Telecom bought in 2000. That process has brought tensions between the French and British arms of the company since Breton took over four months ago. But to get the juice to pay down France Telecom's debt, Breton clearly believes it's worth a little squeeze.

The Last Gasp
Britain, home to three of the world's largest tobacco companies, ended all industry advertising last week, among a thick cloud of ads that grabbed some final publicity. The ban, which covers posters, billboards and print, will soon also end sponsorship of sporting events. U.K. tobacco firms spent only €32 million on ads last year, but 1.6 million people saw their billboards every day — which is why the government hopes the ban might finally help snuff out smoking among the young.

THE BOTTOM LINE
It's hard to collapse when you're already sprawling on the ground.
PETER TASKER, founder of Tokyo-based Arcus Investment, on Japan's economy, which managed to eke out a surprising 0.5% growth last quarter

• BLAINE GRETEMAN
• European businesses worry about the post-war cost of doveishness