Quotes of the Day
The morning after Al Gore declared on 60 Minutes that he wouldn't be running for President, three urgent phone messages were left for Hollywood producer Rob Reiner by prominent Democrats: North Carolina Senator John Edwards, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and Vermont Governor Howard Dean. Reiner, who had been Gore's most loyal backer in Hollywood, is the hottest ticket in politics these days — someone not only capable of writing big checks, but willing to ask his friends to do it as well. Last week the Hollywood shuffle repeated itself. Minority leader Tom Daschle had barely taken his toe out of the presidential water before it dawned on everyone that one of Daschle's primary patrons, Dreamworks partner David Geffen, was suddenly up for grabs.
In their reluctance to run, Daschle and Gore are the exception these days. And while the Iowa caucuses may be more than a year ahead on your calendar, they feel like a heartbeat away to those who aspire to be the Democrat who challenges George W. Bush. The nomination might not seem like much of a prize, given that the winner gets to run against an incumbent President with a currently healthy approval rating and probably a quarter-billion dollars to spend in the campaign. But the field is expanding quickly and snapping up top talent.
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Already two Senators, Kerry and Edwards, have launched their bids. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, the 2000 vice- presidential nominee, is expected to declare this week. And at least two other Senators — Bob Graham of Florida and Joseph Biden of Delaware — are giving it serious thought. The Senate is not the only breeding ground for presidential wannabes. Former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt is in the race. The Rev. Al Sharpton is expected to jump in by the end of the month. And last week Gary Hart was making the rounds in Washington declaring his interest in a third bid. "I'd love to be President," he told reporters. "I'd have been a very good President. In many ways, I'd be a better one now."
Lieberman, by virtue of his name recognition from the 2000 race, holds the slimmest of leads in the polls, but no one who is running has managed to crack even 20% among Democrats. The contenders' prospects depend largely on Bush's performance, a factor over which they have no control. So they are jostling to be in the best position should opportunity strike. It's a fast-forward process like none before it, one that operates on a new set of rules. Here are five:
1) Get Money Now
As Daschle began serious talks with his strategists in December, they laid a daunting figure before him: $1 million a month. That's how much he would have to raise over the next year to make a bid for the nomination. With half a dozen states expected to hold their primaries within a month of the Iowa caucuses, candidates have to be running a national campaign by this fall. That means they need to start lining up donors now who can write the maximum $2,000 checks allowed under the campaign-finance law.
Gore's decision not to run opened up opportunities, but competition is fierce. Lieberman, whose crusade against violent and sexually explicit entertainment has left him with few friends in Hollywood, is working Silicon Valley hard. And in New York City, several of Gore's former backers plan to meet this week to consider their options. "This is the first time in my experience there's not been an obvious candidate that all the most engaged activists here are going to get behind," says one of them, investment banker Steve Rattner. "At the moment, it's a real free-for-all."
2) Sweat the Small Stuff
There's no room for rookie mistakes, even when no one's watching. An appearance on Meet the Press can give weeks of good buzz, as it did for Dean last summer, or have the opposite effect, as it did for Edwards last May. Fund raisers grumble that Edwards is slow with his thank-you notes, but the North Carolina Senator's Jan. 2 announcement that he was running was masterly: a tightly organized media blitz of 40 interviews, plus a news conference at the end of his driveway. The more seasoned Gephardt botched his entry when an overly eager fund raiser leaked the news two days early.
Kerry's campaign is already running with military-style efficiency. When he noticed last summer that his ever present American-flag lapel pin had been lost in the jostle of a South Carolina crowd, the Senator's crack advance man Tom Keady produced a plastic bag full of spares. And Keady saw to it that the bib Kerry was issued for a recent charity ski race in New Hampshire carried the number 04.
3) Get McCain's Benediction
So what if he's a Republican — and one who couldn't beat George Bush, at that? Nearly all the Democrats seeking the White House are trying to channel Senator John McCain's straight-talking, iconoclastic appeal. They work his name into their speeches. Their operatives seek his team's advice. And most of the candidates have sponsored legislation with him — Lieberman on global warming, Edwards on health care, Kerry on fuel-efficiency standards, Gephardt on corporate welfare. Dean has gone so far as to declare himself the John McCain of 2004. In politics, there's nothing inauthentic about swiping someone else's authenticity.
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4) Beware the Perilous Story Line
As much as anything, what killed Gore in 2000 was the rap that he was a stiff who couldn't stop telling whoppers. Perceptions are jelling that Edwards is callow, Kerry aloof and patrician, Gephardt yesterday's news. Dean? Well, he's from tiny Vermont.
The candidates are worrying as much about how they don't want to be defined as how they do. Media profiles of Kerry feature him rhapsodizing about his Harley and playing his guitar. Edwards spent the fall giving heavy-duty policy speeches. Gephardt peppers his talks with New Democrat words like "responsibility," and he became a relatively early hawk on Iraq. Dean gave up his day job last week, which affords him lots more time to make friends outside the Green Mountain State.
5) Pander with a Drawl
Candidates are wasting no time in building their operations in states that matter. Steve Hildebrand, who ran Iowa for Gore, had pledged his loyalties to Daschle; within an hour of the Senate minority leader's announcement that he was opting out, Hildebrand had already got recruitment feelers from three other candidates.
It's also important to master the fine points of fitting in locally. As a seasoned operative notes, if you're in Iowa you have to know when the Jell-O is being served as a salad and when it's a dessert. And no one can afford to ignore South Carolina, which is expected to hold its primary the first week of February, a week after New Hampshire. South Carolina may be the most crucial test — one that will show which candidate appeals most to moderates, Southerners and African Americans. Such attention is new for a state accustomed to being overlooked by national Democratic politicians. "I've noticed that Joe Lieberman has been using the term 'y'all' lately when he calls me," South Carolina Democratic chairman Dick Harpootlian says with a laugh.
All of which suggests that however wide the field, the fight for the nomination could be all but over only weeks after the Iowa caucuses. "It won't be the distance runner who wins," says former Clinton White House chief of staff John Podesta, a Daschle strategist. "This time it's the sprinter." At this rate, they will all be exhausted before the starting gun.
- Karen Tumulty