The epithet that seemed to be perpetually attached to the Arab League was "toothless." On Sunday, Jan. 22, however, the organization bared its fangs at Syria. In the absence of a detailed political road map from the Syrian opposition, the Arab League presented its own audacious plan, calling on Syrian President Bashar Assad to relinquish power to his Vice President, who would then form a national unity government within two months of early parliamentary and presidential elections.
The proposal, outlined by Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani in a press conference at the league's headquarters in Cairo, also demands that Assad begin a national dialogue with the opposition within two weeks and that the unity government, within three months of its formation, elect a council to write a new constitution. "I call on Syrian authorities to accept their responsibilities before God and their people and the Arab nation," Sheik Hamad said after a nearly five-hour meeting of Arab Foreign Ministers in Cairo. "We know that Syria has entered a period of violence and counterviolence." He added that the members of the opposition "are arming to defend themselves."
The Arab League had met to consider a report submitted by Sudanese General Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi, head of the league's monitoring mission in Syria. The monthlong mission, which wrapped up on Thursday, Jan. 19, had been tasked with verifying if Assad had implemented a signed agreement with the league to withdraw his tanks and troops from Syria's cities and towns, cease violence, free political prisoners and start a meaningful dialogue with the opposition. A low-level committee had recommended that the league's Foreign Ministers extend the mission by a month.
But instead of diplomatic politesse, proceedings were thrown into disarray after Saudi Arabia stepped out of the background role it has played so far in the Syria crisis to forcefully push for an end to the Syrian government's ferocious crackdown against its opponents. For months, Qatar has taken the lead on Syria. In a move that likely persuaded other countries, especially Gulf states, to take a stronger line against Damascus, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told his counterparts that his country would withdraw its observers from the much criticized league monitoring mission in Syria because of the continued shedding of "blood that is dear to us all."
Assad had failed to comply with an Arab League plan to end the violence, Prince Saud said, adding that "all possible pressure" should be applied on Damascus to cease a blistering offensive that has claimed well over 5,000 lives in the past 10 months and, according to Syrian-rights groups, almost 1,000 since observers first arrived in Syria on Dec. 26. "We are calling on the international community to bear its responsibility, and that includes our brothers in Islamic states and our friends in Russia, China, Europe and the United States," Prince Saud said.
The strong Saudi remarks hardened deep divides within the 22-member Arab League over how to tackle the Syrian problem. Because of the disagreements, the Foreign Ministers' meeting, originally scheduled for 4 p.m. Cairo time, was delayed for several hours. When it finally convened, the meeting lasted nearly five hours. The decision to take its initiative to the United Nations Security Council did not receive the support of Algeria, which abstained, or Lebanon, which, once again in the grip of its larger, stronger neighbor Syria, rejected the pan-Arab deal.
Sheik Hamad acknowledged that the Saudi stance had influenced its Gulf allies. "Saudi is an important country in the Gulf Cooperation Council," he said, referring to the political and economic alliance of six Gulf states. "It is like a father to all of the countries. We have disagreed with it many times, but this is the reality. If there is a clear opinion from the kingdom, the GCC will follow it."
Qatar reiterated its call for dispatching Arab peacekeeping troops to Syria. Sheik Hamad said the league had not seriously discussed that proposal, likening such a deployment to that of the so-called Arab Deterrent Force (composed almost entirely of Syrian forces) dispatched during Lebanon's civil war. That mission ended disastrously when the Syrian military quickly became a party to the Lebanese conflict rather than a peacekeeper. Still, the mere suggestion of Arab boots on the ground was a clear indication of how forceful the Arab League is prepared to be. Sheik Hamad said Assad should accept the plan. "I think this is an honorable exit because it is a Syrian-Arab solution."
Arab League secretary general Nabil el-Araby told the joint news conference he would appoint a special representative to oversee the implementation of the plan and negotiate between the Syrian government and the opposition. Sheik Hamad likened the league's road map for Syria to the one outlined for Yemen. That comparison may cause some Syrians to cringe. It took Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh months to sign off on that deal. (Ironically, and perhaps not coincidentally, Saleh left Yemen on Sunday after months of clinging to power upon surviving an assassination attempt that left his hands and parts of his scalp severely burned.)
The plan is bold, but there is one clear catch: Assad must agree to it, and as el-Araby said, the violence must cease "before the political operation begins." Based on Assad's previous dealings with an Arab League he deeply despises, he may effectively buy time by studying the initiative and providing a veneer of cooperation while continuing what he has termed his "security solution" to the country's problems. On the other hand, Assad called for a national unity government in his most recent speech. Still, having the condition imposed on him by the league is another matter.
The league's plan makes it clear that the Syrian leader has been sidelined by his peers and has few friends in the region other than Iran, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah and the Lebanese government it dominates. Russia and China have shielded Assad from serious censure at the U.N., but the emboldened Arab consensus against Damascus, as well as its plan to go to the Security Council formally, may put added pressure on Russia and China to let a resolution pass.
The Syrian National Council (SNC), the main umbrella opposition group, welcomed the league's plan. In a late-night press conference following that of the Arab League, SNC leader Burhan Ghalioun said the Arab League's decision makes it clear that "most Arab countries now consider that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is over." El-Araby said the league's road map was not discussed with the SNC. (In what was a long day of dramatic developments, the SNC also called on the league to transfer the Syria file to the Security Council for referral to the International Criminal Court.)
The Arab League's newfound audacity, however, wasn't enough for one Syrian journalist present at the news conference. "You haven't listened to the Syrian people. The people want to execute Assad," he demanded of the Qatari Foreign Minister.
"Who has stopped them?" Sheik Hamad retorted. "Have we stopped them?"
"You know Assad will reject this," the reporter continued.
"Well, what do you think we should do?" Sheik Hamad asked in reply.
And that is where the drama stands.