President Obama's senior staff laid out his proposal to control the federal deficit while creating jobs Sunday night. The plan claims to cut more than 4 trillion over the next decade, largely from a $1.5 trillion increase in taxes targeting the wealthy. The rhetorical touchstone, referred to repeatedly by the staff in their background briefing was the phrase "fair share," which they say is what the rich should pay by having their tax rate the same or higher than middle income Americans.
The GOP pounced, arguing that a massive tax hike on anyone would kill jobs and stunt the recovery. Wisconsin GOP Congressman Paul Ryan said the Obama plan would produce less investment and less job creation by taxing those with the resources to power a recovery. "If you tax something more, Chris, you get less of it," Ryan told Fox's Chris Wallace on Sunday.
And then he broke out the GOP's own rhetorical touchstone for the debate: class warfare. "Class warfare, Chris, may make for really good politics, but it makes for rotten economics."
Who wins politically in a battle between "fair share" and "class warfare"?
The technical side of the argument is easy enough to parse. Democrats, defending the idea of a progressive tax code, argue that the wealthy should pay at least the same tax rate as the middle class, perhaps a higher rate. Republicans, by and large, say fairness is based on the proportion of the overall tax bill that is paid by different groups: the wealthiest 1%, for example, paid 38% of all federal income taxes in 2008, while the bottom 50% paid only 3%, says the Heritage foundation.
Politically, it's more complicated. Clearly both sides reach their base with their message. "Fair share" is straight up union talk, and will resonate with Democrats Obama wants to solidify and energize ahead of a year of tough economic wrangling. "Class warfare" opens wealthy wallets during campaign season, and taps the active and enthusiastic anti-government Tea Party movement, which sees Socialism under every Democrat's bed.
Does either message have an advantage with the middle? Blue collar Reagan Democrats hate "class warfare." There may be a racial "dog whistle" component still resonating from the 1960s and Nixon's southern strategy, but the power of that is diminishing. "Fair share" may tap some anti-Wall Street anger in the middle, and polling is clear that most Americans think taxes on the rich should go up. But both messages seem primarily tailored to the base.