Quotes of the Day

In 2000 it was Florida, four years later it was Ohio — could the decisive swing state in the 2008 presidential election be Colorado? Recent polls indicate that the question of whether the Centennial State's nine electoral college votes will go to Barack Obama or John McCain is too close to call. The state has become increasingly competitive over the past decade: President George W. Bush carried it by 9% in 2000, but four years later John Kerry slashed that margin almost in half.

But Colorado politics is more complicated than a simple choice between national presidential candidates. McCain and Obama will share the ballot with a raft of voter-sponsored amendments, many of them touching on hot-button issues that the candidates can't afford to ignore. A controversial ballot initiative can fire up strongly committed constituencies and bring them en masse to the polls, where, of course, they'll also cast a presidential vote. This year's contenders range from a call for prayer time in public schools to a proposed sex strike to end the Iraq war. One of the highest-profile measures, Amendment 46, would do away with most forms of state-sponsored affirmative action. Initiative 113 would cut subsidies to energy companies and effectively raise their taxes by more than $200 million, with the extra cash being used in part to fund scholarships.

And then there is Amendment 48, which defines "any fertilized egg, embryo, or fetus" as a person under the law. That one, backed by such high-profile figures as former Republican president contender Mike Huckabee, is sure to raise the voting day turnout among Evangelical Christians and pro-life Catholics. But will that translate into a bump in support for McCain?

The Arizona senator has never been on the best of terms with social conservatives — James Dobson, president of the Colorado Springs-based Focus on the Family, once flatly declared "I will never vote for McCain." A recent poll from the Pew Research Center found that although McCain has the support of a healthy 61% of Evangelicals, he still lags behind President Bush's numbers in the same constituency four years ago.

But if social conservatives come out to support Amendment 48, they might hold their noses and vote for McCain. "The personhood amendment could be something that gets [social conservatives] out to vote," says Curtis Hubbard, political editor of the Denver Post. It wouldn't be the first time a Republican got help from further down the ballot. In 2004, Bush benefited from several statewide initiatives banning gay marriage.

Obama, however, could also get a boost from a constituency less than enthusiastic about his candidacy. Hesitancy over Obama among blue-collar and union voters might be neutralized by turnout to vote against a cluster of initiatives aimed at curbing the power of Colorado's unions. Amendment 47 would let workers opt out of joining a union; Initiative 59 bans unions that have collective-bargaining agreements with the state government from donating campaign cash. Angry union leaders have vowed to kills these measures. Professor Kenneth Bickers, chair of the political science department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, predicts "a kind of 1930s style conflict between unions and management." Bad news for civility, but good news for Obama: In 2004, union members nationwide gave 61% of their vote to John Kerry. The more union voters turn out in Colorado, the better Obama will do.

The Democrat already has a leg up on McCain. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Obama holds a ten-point edge among Colorado's union voters. The trouble for Obama is that only 8% of Colorado's workers are unionized, well below the national average. That's why Professor Scott Adler of UC-Boulder doubts union votes will be a difference-maker: "I don't think you could just win with only union voters," he says.

While they may raise turnout in core constituencies on both sides of national politics, the ballot initiatives may not in themselves swing Colorado's electoral vote. Says Brad Jones, managing editor of the political blog Facethestate.org, "Did George Bush carry Colorado [in 2004] because of voter initiatives? Probably not."

Hubbard believes turnout will be up in November, but he thinks Coloradans will tell exit pollers it wasn't the downballot measures that brought them polls. "It's a little too soon to tell," says Hubbard, but "I think right now the thing that's going to be driving voter turnout more than anything else is the presidential election." Even more so than the prospect of a sex strike.

• William Schultz