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The somber, ill-fitting suit Alfredo Reinado wore in his coffin on Wednesday surprised weeping mourners accustomed to the Major's trademark camouflage fatigues. As they surged forward to get a last glimpse of the East Timorese rebel — who had a handkerchief delicately folded over the bullet wound in his eye and what looked like a half-smile on his lips — the scene seemed as unlikely as the manner of his death.

Many wondered aloud why a man who had eluded Australia's and New Zealand's special forces had exposed himself to an ignominious end in a clumsy assassination attempt, which on Monday gravely wounded President José Ramos-Horta. As Reinado told Time in a meeting last July in the jungle outside the capital, Dili, he was so skilled at silent tracking and ambush that he could sneak into the bedrooms of East Timor's leaders: "If I want to, I can kiss them while they are sleeping."

The former Military Police commander deserted with a group of loyal soldiers in May 2006, and in the eyes of the country's eastern population, who believe the Fretilin government is biased in favor of westerners, swiftly emerged as a local Che Guevara. During the violence that followed his defection, Reinado besieged Dili, launching a brazen attack on the Army's main barracks at Taci Tolu and controlling the siege via cell phone from an old pousada at Maubisse, 45km south, in the mountainous interior.

After the Australian-led International Stabilization Force reestablished order, Reinado was jailed, along with his men — but not for long. In August 2006 they broke down a prison wall and escaped back to the jungle. Last year the government authorized a massive attack on the gang's hideout at Same, 50 km south of Dili, during which loyalist troops and Australian and New Zealand special forces killed five of his men. Reinado had since remained in hiding, though in recent months he had held meetings with Ramos-Horta in an attempt to negotiate terms for his surrender.

Exactly what happened on Monday morning is unclear, but what is not disputed is that Reinado and his bodyguard arrived at Ramos-Horta's compound soon after 6 a.m. Guards claimed Reinado disarmed the compound security detail and intended to shoot the President when he returned from an early-morning jog. But men at the compound who declined to be identified say he was waiting to have a meeting with Ramos-Horta, and Reinado's own men, now in hiding, insist he was there only to continue negotiations.

A civilian eyewitness to the shooting told investigators that Reinado and his men, carrying weapons, had entered Ramos-Horta's house, asked the way to his bedroom and, when told he was out, gone to the dining room, where Reinado and Leopoldino Esposito were suddenly gunned down. Ramos-Horta, meanwhile, returned from his run and was hit three times during a shootout between regular troops and the rest of Reinado's men.

Just over an hour later, Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão was leaving his home in the hills above Dili when he was fired upon. Bullets hit his car, but Gusmão was unhurt; a guard claimed he saw one of Reinado's lieutenants, Gustão Salsinha, in the area after the attack. Salsinha has denied any part in the assault.

Speaking later on Monday, Gusmão was in no doubt it was an assassination attempt. "The state considers this very serious," he told a press conference. "This was an organized operation, because they also ambushed and attacked me as I was leaving for my office." Prosecutor general Longuinhos Monteiro issued arrest warrants for 18 of Reinado's rebels, while Australia sent 200 troops to bolster its 750-strong command in East Timor and help in the hunt for the suspects.

Dili remained uneasily calm as Reinado was buried, the anticipated backlash from his followers neutralized by a 12-day state of emergency, with night-time curfews and security cordons around large towns. But news moves slowly through remote parts of East Timor, and the threat of fresh violence is never far away. Even in death, Reinado may continue to loom large in the affairs of his country.

• Rory Callinan/Dili