Quotes of the Day

Heading out from a town hall in Howell, Michigan, John McCain supporter Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) explains why the state's voters have steered candidates away from the issues that were the touchstones of earlier races — the war, border security, health care — and brought out rhetoric focused almost exclusively on the economy and jobs.

"We have the highest rate of mortgage foreclosures in the country — even more than Louisiana," he says. "We —" He spins around in his seat on the Straight Talk Express: "Just look out there." He jabs his finger at the window pane toward the drizzly scene rolling by: "There's a closed shopping center. There's a store with nothing in it. There's an empty parking lot." He shakes his head. "The people of this state want solutions."

Not that they believe they're coming. According to one unaligned Republican pollster who does focus groups for corporate clients in Michigan, in a major survey of 1,200 residents, "I think only Chechnya has a worse right track/wrong track. [The state] polled 84 percent wrong track."

Michigan's primary today has attracted relatively little national media attention, but its results should prove revealing. Voters in the rest of the country may soon be grappling with the same severe economic downturn as Michigan already is, and the outcome of the Republican primary could go a long way toward determining John McCain or Mitt Romney's chances at winning the nomination.

What the final numbers will not say much about is what exactly Republican voters want those solutions to their economic woes to be. The two candidates vying for the top spot here — the most recent polls have shown McCain and Romney in a virtual dead heat — have immensely different campaign styles, and they have framed their message on Michigan's future in starkly contrasting ways, but what they are offering voters is not radically different.

Romney has come to his second home state reminding voters that he is a native son; he grew up here, his father was a three-term governor a generation ago and, before that, the president of American Motors. In speeches, he makes it sound like the state's sour economy insulted his mother: "I will not rest until Michigan is back!" As he says in his most recent ad, "It's personal to me."

But the campaign is counting on that message to conjure more than mere nostalgia: Romney, they argue, is uniquely positioned to rescue the dying American car industry, and indeed he has talked about Washington spending billions to spur new research in automotive technology. He has hammered McCain for his support of new fuel efficiency standards, a sore subject for many in the auto industry, which has made the bulk of its recent profits on gas guzzling light trucks and SUVs. His successful business background, married with his familial connection to the state's now-anemic lifeblood, exerts a strong appeal on a state that has little reason to believe that practical solutions exist, much less are coming soon. A supporter who gathered at the entrance of the International North American Auto Show to catch a glimpse of Romney said that the governor's "interest in autos" would put him over the top: "This state needs someone who cares about this state more than one day a year."

If Romney is sepia-toned, McCain is black and white. Where Romney tells them he can restore the state to what it was, McCain tells them, "Those jobs are not coming back."

McCain has been giving that little piece of straight talk since April; usually in response to a general question about NAFTA, or outsourcing. Here in Michigan, however, with its 7.5% unemployment rate, McCain's statement has an extremely negative connotation that's allowed Romney to paint McCain as practicing "economic pessimism," while claiming that "I'm going to fight for every single job."

Still, as small government conservatives, neither man supports the kinds of targeted incentives that would allow the government to incentivize the Michigan economy in particular. As free-marketers, both men support advancing free trade (indeed, the only economic policy paper on Romney's website is about how he will improve "Global Economic Competition"). In economically depressed areas, this stance is generally translated to "allowing our jobs to go to China."

While Romney tells people that he's going to fight for "every single job," his stated plan for those unemployed auto workers is to retrain them and improve education to prepare workers for jobs in the information economy, as well as for what some call "green collar" jobs in the burgeoning field of alternative energy research and development. McCain's plan? To retrain and educate displaced workers for jobs in the information economy and the "green revolution." McCain also wants to reform unemployment insurance, as his policy proposal recognizes that free trade and globalization "will not automatically benefit every American." Romney makes no such concession. In his stump speech, he insists "the American worker can compete with anyone," and vows that he will "bring back" jobs in manufacturing and industry in Michigan.

When it comes right down to it, the most significant difference between McCain and Romney on economic policy in Michigan is that Romney is telling Michigan voters what they want to hear. Even at the hyperbolically upbeat Detroit Auto Show, Doug Fox, the president of the group that organizes the largest auto show in North America, was skeptical that anyone — even Mitt Romney — could keep auto manufacturing jobs in the state. "Oh, those jobs are going to change," he said, moments before Romney entered the glitzy showroom. "It's going to be high-tech jobs that come here."

Diana Fox is one of those displaced workers that needs a high-tech job — or any job. Listening in on a McCain town hall, she admitted his answers on the economy were dispiriting: "I was disappointed," she said. Her husband Jeff, a manager in a metal stamper plant, jumped in: "But he's straight on. He comes out and tells you you're not gonna like his answer."

In the end, the battle between McCain and Romney might come down to turnout. University of Michigan political science professor Michael Traugott expects turnout to be dramatically lower than in previous years, in part because of the sense that Michigan's role in the primary process will not matter as much. The betting is that low turnout would favor Romney, who can count on the support of die-hard Republican voters (the latest polls have him leading McCain among that group by 11 points). If McCain can turn out independents, as he did in New Hampshire, he could win — not easily, but then again, he doesn't have to win by much to give himself a real boost and Romney's campaign yet another silver medal going into South Carolina's primary on Saturday.

• Ana Marie Cox/Howell
• Today's GOP primary is all about the economy, not health care or war, and John McCain and Mitt Romney have the task of convincing voters they have real solutions to a recession