Quotes of the Day

With almost every day bringing more damaging revelations in the spreading dirty-tricks scandal that has ensnared French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, why doesn't President Jacques Chirac seek to quell the affaire by replacing his besieged premier? Because the pragmatic, and perhaps cynical, Chirac probably realizes that the news has been so relentlessly bad there's little chance the situation can get much worse. Given that, the scandal-veteran Chirac appears to be playing out the clock — and hoping that both the French media and public opinion will soon tire of it all before pressure to dismiss Villepin becomes untenable.

That's a rather heady bet, given the frenzy surrounding the scandal — and steady supply of new scoops as evidence in on-going legal inquiries leak out. This week, new evidence and testimony arose suggesting the long-time political allies were at the heart of underhanded efforts to discredit conservative rival and presidential front-runner, Nicolas Sarkozy. On Wednesday, Jean-Louis Gergorin, a Villepin confidante, was implicated by a French justice official as the source of fabricated evidence supporting what turned out to be false accusations of a massive kickback scheme benefiting many French business people and politicians — including Sarkozy. Gergorin had earlier been cited as attending a 2004 meeting where Villepin — serving as Foreign Minister at the time — ordered French super-spy Philippe Rondot to secretly look into the corruption charges. Press reports, based on testimony Rondot recently provided to investigators, indicate that Villepin stressed that Chirac personally ordered the operation. Notes Rondot took at the meeting reportedly also underline the political stakes involved with Sarkozy as a potential target of it — as well as his running feud with Chirac. Villepin hasn't commented on the affair this week, and Gergorin hasn't in recent memory though he stepped down this week as vice-chairman of the European Aeronautic Defence and Space company in order to prepare his defense.

Villepin has claimed he ordered the investigation in "national security interests", due to claims the kickback arose from a $2.8 billion sale of French frigates to Taiwan in 1991. But that doesn't explain why Villepin failed to clue Sarkozy in to the false allegations once he got Rondot's report deeming the entire scheme a hoax. Nor why, after being named Interior Minister later, Villepin used official domestic espionage service, the DST, to start yet another investigation into the same case — again keeping Sarkozy in the dark. By this week, the steady flow of information had gotten so thick in casting Villepin as an underhanded schemer that the formerly ubiquitous premier was forced to adopt a low profile, withhold comment, and try to ride out the storm.

It didn't help. Sarkozy assumed the role of indignant victim — even as he rolled out his stump speeches for presidential polling next May. He denounced the affair as a "grotesque set-up" and the "miserable machinations of conspirators seeking to compromise me." Meanwhile, pressure to dump Villepin grew so great that Chirac was forced to make a rare TV address promising he'd stand by the prime minister. As luck would have it, that announcement ranked second on daily newscasts — right after press reports citing other sections of Rondot's testimony to investigators on a 2001 secret service inquiry into suspicions that nearly $60 million had been allegedly deposited into a Japanese bank account set up for Chirac. After official denials from the Elysée — as well as Rondot's own refutations that any such account or inquiries into it existed — Chirac addressed the nation to confirm his confidence in Villepin, and to rail against "the dictatorship of rumor and calumny".

With things looking so bleak — and the scandal now nipping at his own behind — why doesn't Chirac sacrifice Villepin to defuse the crisis? First off, because short of a smoking gun formally nailing Villepin as the main force behind the anti-Sarkozy conspiracy, the scandal would appear to have peaked. And there's a reasonable chance the French will soon burn out on the affair. Even last weekend, the national press took a breather and instead focused en masse on the sordid abductions and murders of two children. With the start of World Cup play less than a month off, it's likely the Elysée is betting similar scandal fatigue will soon give way to soccer mania — which will lead directly into the news-sluggish July and August vacation season. With the formerly reformist government now looking as lame duck as Chirac himself, chances are high both the president and Villepin are now simply looking to ride out the current storm — and the next 12 months before elections — passively.

Meanwhile, Sarkozy, too, has interests in not fanning the flames of the scandal until they burn Villepin out of office. With virtually no other viable replacements around, Chirac would have little choice but to name Sarkozy prime minister should Villepin have to go. And though many Sarkozy backers are hankering for just that kind of vindication, his advisers want no part of it. First, one notes, with Sarkozy basing his presidential platform on promises of sweeping change for France, he'd want to avoid having to actually put in place anything that might risk the kind of mass opposition that brought Villepin low earlier this year. Meanwhile, they add, Sarkozy is already preparing his resignation as Interior Minister in the coming months in order to fully dedicate himself to a presidential campaign. Finally, they note, no sitting French prime minister has ever won a presidential campaign — a jinx many in Sarkozy's team do not want to try to break.

• BRUCE CRUMLEY
• Why is Villepin still in his job? Because, perhaps, even bad press doesn't last forever