Quotes of the Day

In Khartoum for an Arab league summit last week, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas received hourly dispatches on the vote in the Israel elections. There was no secret about who he wanted to win: Ehud Olmert, leader of the centrist Kadima party, and political heir to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who has lain in a coma since January. Olmert's party did better than any other; but Kadima scooped up just 29 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Opinion polls before the vote had suggested that it would win nearly 40. "I wish Olmert had more seats," Abbas told his aides. "Now he can't give us anything."

Strong partners are needed to forge a Middle East peace. But neither Abbas nor Olmert, acting Prime Minister and all but certain to continue in that role, fit the bill. As President of the Palestinian Authority, Abbas, a member of Fatah, has to contend with the radical Islamic government of Hamas, which won the Palestinian elections in January. And Olmert must rig up a coalition government with potentially troublesome partners to secure a majority in the Knesset. Until he does that, say advisers, he will not move into Sharon's office. But putting a coalition together is just a start; political observers in Jerusalem say that Olmert's plans to "disengage" with the Palestinians—by pulling out some Jewish settlements from the West Bank and creating permanent borders—are likely to be stalled or re-grooved by his coalition partners.

Olmert will likely align Kadima with Labor (which won 20 seats) and either the Shas party of the Orthodox Sephardic Jews (12 seats) or the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu (11 seats), a voice for the country's 900,000 Russian immigrants. Several of the smaller fringe parties, such as the Pensioners' Party, may also join the coalition. All these groupings have their own agendas. Labor, for example, says it wants a negotiated peace with the Palestinians. Labor leader Amir Peretz said he is in favor of dismantling Jewish settlements in the West Bank. But this will cause pain among those of his supporters who remember that earlier Labor governments were responsible for building many of the West Bank settlements, where over 250,000 Jews now live. As Gerald Steinberg, head of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar Ilan University, says, "Disengagement is hindered by Kadima's low results." Shas is against a pullout of settlers, while Beiteinu wants to draw the border so that many Israeli-Arab citizens would be pushed unwillingly into a future Palestinian state.

Notwithstanding its unspectacular performance, Kadima's victory marks a new chapter in Israel's history. Voters have shown themselves willing to sacrifice the ancient dream of a Greater Israel—stretching from the sea to the Jordan River—and to make room for a separate Palestinian state. That is a painful but pragmatic recognition of realities, as Olmert himself admits. A portion of his election-night speech was directed to his fan in Khartoum—Abbas. "We are ready to compromise and give up parts of our land that we love," Olmert said, "where the best of our sons and fighters are buried and, with a heavy heart, to evacuate the Jews who live there in order to allow us to fulfill your dream and live alongside us, in your state, in lasting peace."

For many Israelis, those words were stirring stuff. But they don't seem to have cut much ice with Hamas. Leaders of the Islamic party are incensed by a key facet of Olmert's disengagement plan: If Hamas refuses to accept Israel's right to exist, the Israelis will draw up permanent borders without the Palestinians' consent. "Why should we recognize Israel," Aziz Dweik, a Hamas member and the new speaker of the Palestinian parliament, told TIME, "when Israel won't recognize our existence?" Israel, for its part, will not talk to Hamas until the militants abandon their vow to destroy the Jewish state, renounce terrorism and give up their weapons. Relations between Israel and the Palestinians are at a low: 14 of the new Hamas cabinet ministers took the oath of office last week by videophone because Israel refuses to let Hamas officials travel by road between the West Bank and Gaza. Still, Hamas is observing a 14-month-old cease-fire with Israel, though other Palestinian groups continue to launch attacks. Last week, the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades sent a hitchhiking suicide bomber into the West Bank settlement of Kedumim. His bomb exploded in a car killing himself and four Jewish settlers.

Any withdrawal from the West Bank probably won't start for a year, say Kadima party insiders. Until then, Olmert will try coaxing settlers to leave voluntarily so that he can avoid the ugly eviction scenes of the past year, when ultra-Orthodox squatters hurled stones at Israeli security forces and called them "Nazis." But most of all, Olmert will be waiting to see if Hamas softens its stance towards Israel. It hasn't done so yet.

• Tim McGirk | Jerusalem
• A contested victory in Israel's election leaves Ehud Olmert with little clout to forge a Middle East peace