Quotes of the Day

Thailand's Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, once appeared unassailable. Just over a year ago, his Thai Rak Thai political party was re-elected in a landslide victory that gave it 375 out of 500 parliamentary seats. Many Thais love Thaksin for his decisive, can-do style, his toughness on crime and his open-handed policies to boost the economy. But in recent weeks a chorus of critics has put the Prime Minister on the defensive, questioning with mounting intensity whether he's good for Thailand. To reaffirm his popularity, Thaksin has called a snap general election for April 2—a vote that the main opposition parties say they will boycott. When the Prime Minister kicked off his campaign at a rally in Bangkok on March 3, he looked uncharacteristically tentative, at one point even pleading with the opposition to take part in the election. "I don't want to be a troublemaker," he said, his voice scratchy and dark circles under his eyes. "People can have different ideas, but please don't split the nation."

Thailand is indeed divided. While the hinterland, where 70% of the country's 65 million people live, still seems squarely behind Thaksin, Bangkok's urban élite accuses him of everything from abuse of power to mismanagement of the ethnic violence in the impoverished, Muslim-dominated south. The tipping point was the announcement in January that Thaksin's family had sold its 49.6% stake in the telecommunications giant Shin Corp. for $1.87 billion to a group led by Temasek Holdings, the Singapore government's investment arm. The sale has infuriated many Thais. It means that one of Thailand's corporate crown jewels is now controlled by a foreign entity. And the sale has sparked furious resentment because Thaksin's family did not have to pay any tax on its windfall. (Transactions by individuals on the Thai stock exchange are exempted from capital-gains tax.)

Last Friday the Securities and Exchange Commission fined Thaksin's son Panthongtae $150,000 for not disclosing changes in his Shin holdings dating back to 2001. The authorities say the Prime Minister has broken no law, but the controversy over the Shin deal refuses to die, and Bangkok has been rocked by street protests drawing tens of thousands clamoring for him to step down. By calling an election, Thaksin is turning to the people to pass judgment on him, and their verdict would likely be to return him and his party to power, albeit with a smaller majority. But the boycott by the opposition—which first wants the constitution changed to strengthen the checks and balances on the Prime Minister—threatens to undermine the election result.

In past conflicts, Thais have often turned to their revered monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, for guidance. The King has yet to directly address the standoff between Thaksin and his opponents. But Thailand's army chief General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, who is close to the palace, told reporters last week that "His Majesty must have been saddened" by the nation's recent political problems. Added another senior officer, Lieutenant-General Palangoon Klaharn: "His Majesty will be very happy if his subjects are unified and use peaceful means to resolve the problem." For the sake of the country, many Thais pray that the King will be heeded.

CHAMLONG SRIMUANG
Former governor of Bangkok and leader of a "Dharma Army" of barefoot Buddhists opposed to Thaksin
The people hoped Thaksin would lead our country in the right way and solve our problems. And in his first three years as Prime Minister he did very well. But in the last two years, he hasn't been the same. I have decided that it's no good for him to be in this position [of Prime Minister]. It's not only I, but the educated people around the country. Thaksin has been cleared of any legal wrongdoing regarding the sale of his family's Shin Corp. But that's not enough for the man who is Prime Minister. We have to abide by ethics. That's much more important than law and regulations. If Thaksin were a normal man and not the Prime Minister, that's okay, but he's the leader of this country. Thaksin has to resign.

CHANGTHANA POSAYANUKUL
Hotel employee, Bangkok
Thaksin has a good leadership style. He's active. He thinks fast and gets things done. He has a good vision for Thailand. I like his policies, like fighting against drugs and cracking down on criminal gangs. I appreciate what he's done for Thailand. When he wants to do something, he takes responsibility and says, "This is my work." The economy is doing well under Thaksin. People have benefited from his policies. There's less unemployment. My sister runs an import-export business and she says it's getting better. At my hotel, there's a woman whose husband is a taxi driver. Thanks to Thaksin, who made it possible for ordinary people to borrow, he finally has the chance to own his own taxi. For years, he paid 500 baht ($13) a day to rent a taxi. Now he is paying off a loan and after four or five years he will own the taxi. My friend says her husband is very happy. It's like a dream for them.

We have a democracy. We're having elections in April, and everyone will have the chance to vote and decide if they like Thaksin or not. I don't like these street protests. The people who protest claim to represent the Thai people. They want Thaksin out because of his policies. They accuse him of things because they don't like him. You have to prove allegations before a judge. If it's true and you have the evidence, then it can be proven. But they just make accusations, and they don't want to vote. It's not fair.

MARC FABER
Emerging-markets expert and publisher of the monthly investment newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report
Thaksin has the support of the rural population, but the urban population in Bangkok is strongly opposed to him, especially the intellectuals. They argue that he is buying votes in the countryside, which is to some extent true. Voters in the countryside are shipped to rallies in buses and given free food. But this isn't something unique to Thailand or Thaksin by any means. It is the dark side of democracy. Many other politicians all over the world do the same thing.

Thaksin did not have to pay income tax on the Shin Corp. sale. It's not illegal, but it's not particularly ethical. As one of the richest men in the country and its top politician, he doesn't exactly show a good moral example to the business community or the country. If he had just paid the tax, none of this probably would have happened. It's a matter of, say, paying $200 million, which is not the end of the world when you are getting over a billion.

Even if this drags on for some time, I don't think it will be a very negative factor for foreign investment. If someone wants to build a factory or buy some shares in Thailand, I don't think they are going to care about this deadlock. There are a number of ways it could end. Thaksin could simply ride this out. Or the army could step in at some point and force him out. Or the King could ask him to resign. But if he is forced out, the problem in Thailand is the same as in many countries where there is a strong leader: who can do a better job? I don't think there is anyone in the opposition who could. The tragedy of Thaksin is that he could have been a very good leader but he bungled it because of his greed and arrogance.

KORN CHATIKAVANIJ
Deputy secretary-general of the opposition Democrat Party, which is boycotting the April election
The Thaksin administration has used the constitution to create a very strong government, but has undermined the counterbalance that was designed to be in place by interfering in the appointments and running of practically every single agency designed to provide the checks. We feel that for the future of democracy in Thailand it's important for us to say enough is enough and not be a part of Thaksin's system.

The boycott has forced everyone to stop and think. Had we gone along with the election in a business-as-usual attitude, people could have been fooled into thinking there's nothing wrong with the political system. Even if people don't necessarily agree with our view, at least they're asking what our argument is. And that, hopefully, will lead to political and social pressure for change.

Where we've been relatively weak as an opposition is in being able to paint a clear picture of what the public could expect if we were running the country. The public has every right to question what to expect post-Thaksin. The Thaksin administration has played on this. The question they want people to ask is: If not Thaksin, then who? To me, it's a ridiculous question and an insult to Thailand. We have 60-million-plus people and nobody to replace Thaksin?

The only thing Thaksin can do is continue with the election and immediately appoint a nonpartisan body with a mandate to recommend political reform. But given all he's done to destroy the true intent of the constitution, he has no moral right to lead political reform in the future.

SURAPONG SUEBWONGLEE
Thaksin government spokesman
We are aware that the protests and demonstrations have created an uncomfortable situation in our country, so the Prime Minister has decided to dissolve parliament, to let the people decide after they've heard from the protesters and from the government side. Let's see who will be trusted by the people. If the number of people who don't vote and vote for other parties exceeds the number that vote for Thai Rak Thai, Mr. Thaksin has said he won't be the Prime Minister. He has also said that after the election he'll move quickly to amend the constitution. We'll have an independent commission. Then we'll dissolve the parliament again and hold another vote, no later than 15 months after this election.

Many people should join hands to solve this problem. That's why the Prime Minister is open to talks with any opposition leader, anyone from the protest movement, so we can come up with a good solution. We admit some things need to be improved. Public participation in the political process could be better. This includes academics, NGOs, local governments. We need to control corruption and improve transparency in the bureaucracy. But if 100,000 protesters can come onto the streets and ask for any government member to resign, next time they'll do it again. Then how can we develop a mature democracy?

CHALONGPHOB SUSSANGKARN
President of the Thailand Development Research Institute, an independent think tank in Bangkok
Thaksin doesn't understand the saying that justice must not only be done but be seen to be done. More and more people are saying that the laws have been distorted or misinterpreted to favor his business group. Thaksin's stance is that he's doing everything legally, and he's dissolved parliament to hold an election. But this doesn't address what the protesters are talking about. As the situation drags on, bigger groups of people will begin to understand this distinction between playing by the rules and justice being seen to be done.

The economy is still growing, exports are still growing, there's no need to panic. Past history shows that when we have political chaos it tends to be short-term and with limited impact on the economy. But if Thaksin comes back after the election, it will be difficult for him to rule legitimately. This is the big problem that creates all kinds of uncertainties. Whatever decision or policies the government makes, there's always the feeling that it could be reversed after he goes. It's going to affect the ability of Thaksin to govern, and businesses will factor this into account. Investments that require a stable climate will be delayed.

The best way would be for Thaksin to repent, to say: Okay, I did everything by the rules, but there are ethical issues. His best way would be to go back and pay tax on the sale of Shin Corp. and try to do something with the deal so Thais retain majority control. If he does that, maybe he can reduce the tension. He should do that, stay on for a while, then leave politics.

BRIDGET WELSH
Assistant professor of Southeast Asian Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced and International Studies, Washington D.C.
When the Shin Corp. deal happened, that tipped people to say enough is enough. But Thaksin created the situation. He felt invulnerable, dismissed his critics and thought he could push things through with sheer force of personality. The Thais will put up with a lot, and then they can be as hard as anyone else.

The opposition is very divided, so for them coming to any sort of decision about what exactly they want is very difficult. They are united only in their hatred of Thaksin.

Thaksin will have to make some sort of compromise. The danger is that if there is an élite compromise in Bangkok that doesn't acknowledge the rural population—who genuinely support Thaksin because he recognized them and their needs—that could cause big problems in the future. Thaksin is tarnished whatever happens. But the question now is not just about Thaksin's future but about the future of democracy in Thailand. Either the compromise reached will strengthen the democratic system or it will weaken institutions, and that would have a huge negative impact on Thai democracy.

PRABDA YOON
Novelist, screenwriter and columnist
I don't like Thaksin and agree that he should resign. But now it's become complicated because I don't like his rivals. Each side has its own agenda. If Thaksin steps down, everything will be more relaxed. But he's so stubborn and self-righteous that he's probably not going to step down. It's getting tiresome.

In Bangkok people are divided into three groups. The first is anti-Thaksin, the second supports the government, and the third consists of people who are just bored and fed up with the situation and want it to go away. I don't approve of the government and the way it's running the country. But it's also difficult to support or agree with the street protesters. The issues they raise against the government aren't credible. They're just trying to get people angry and win support. It's not really democracy at all on the streets. They're not really offering a solution or saying what could be done better. They are just trying to get Thaksin out.

Before this crisis, very few people were openly antigovernment. Now many are, because they think they should be. Lots of people are taking sides, not really knowing what it's about, or how to actually solve anything. Some people go the rallies to be "part of history," or to meet friends, take photos. It's become theater.

• Simon Elegant
• His critics demand that he quit. But Thailand's Thaksin Shinawatra vows to seek a fresh electoral mandate. TIME asks a range of observers whether he is still the right man to lead his nation