Quotes of the Day

Small parties hate opinion polls, especially in this election, where most commentators see a two-horse race. "The major polls don't reflect what we're seeing on the ground," says New Zealand First M.P. Brent Catchpole. "Many of our constituents are older than the 25- to 45-year-old demographic phone pollsters seek out. Our party is doing a lot better - and we'll prove it on election day." In 2002, when National's vote collapsed to 21%, five minor parties had a field day: they won a combined 41 seats in the 120-member Parliament. This time around, no one is expecting the minnows to poll so strongly - not even strong newcomer the Maori Party, which is tipped to win five seats. Some small parties could end up with no seats; others, like Jim Anderton's Progressives, Labour's socialist-lite coalition partner, could be reduced to a paltry two M.P.s.

Still, the country's Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system, introduced in 1996, means the minor parties will play a role in forming a coalition government or supporting it from outside. For this election, Labour has teamed with the Greens, whose co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald could find themselves in Clark's Cabinet. Peter Dunne's families-focused United Future party has said it could work with either major party. The Maori Party, formed after the foreshore and seabed issue, has said (after some reluctance) it could cooperate with Labour but not National.

Brash sees potential partners on the center-right, most naturally the Tory-style Act, led by the wisecracking Rodney Hide. But Act's nine list seats could be wiped out on present polling, victims of National's resurgence. To shore up its vote and become the third force in national politics that leader Winston Peters aspires to, New Zealand First is taking a "pox on both your houses" attitude: it will not be in a coalition with either of the major parties. Who can say where the mercurial Peters will take his troops after Sept. 17? A sure thing, however, is that next week either Clark or Brash will be all dressed up and looking for dancing partners.

• Tom Dusevic
• Doing the coalition shuffle