Quotes of the Day

This time last year, Jackie Hung was working 24/7. As the organizer of Hong Kong's second July 1 pro-democracy march, Hung was swamped by daily meetings with political groups, NGOs, and the authorities to discuss turnout and crowd control. She'd dash from the printers, where she would vet T shirts, to subway stations to distribute pamphlets. Food was an afterthought takeaway noodles or a steamed pork bun on the run. Hung's hours paid off. The rallies on July 1 in 2003 and '04 both drew a mix of half a million marchers workers, professionals, businesspeople and just plain ordinary folk vigorously protesting everything from China's interference in the territory to local government incompetence to the lack of free elections. This year, however, promises to be a relative washout. A dejected Hung expects only 50,000 to show up. "I thought the momentum couldn't be stopped, that this was a revolution whose tide couldn't be turned," she says, during a leisurely two-hour lunch she now has the time to take. "But people aren't interested in democracy anymore."

What's changed? Everything. A series of moves largely orchestrated by China has pricked Hong Kong's democracy bubble. Beijing has become savvier about dealing with the city, seemingly taking into account public opinion even as it increasingly calls the shots. In March, the Chinese leadership nudged Hong Kong's aloof and deeply unpopular Chief Executive, Tung Chee-hwa, into resigning. That paved the way for Tung's No. 2, Donald Tsang, a gregarious, astute career civil servant with the common touch. Beijing has publicly backed him as the best man to run Hong Kong even though some of the city's pro-China leaders openly question his "patriotic" credentials. Last week Tsang, 60, stepped down temporarily as the acting Chief Executive so he could run on July 10 for the top job in an election he can't lose: the voting bloc is an 800-member electoral college made up largely of local pro-mainland movers and shakers. "It's a paradox," says Professor Anthony Cheung, chairman of pro-democracy think tank SynergyNet. "Beijing is stepping in, has more control, is interfering. At the same time it has become more sensitive to local sentiments."

China is not just managing Hong Kong's politics better. It has relaxed restrictions on its citizens to visit the territory, and granted Hong Kong businesses easier access to the mainland. These measures have helped buoy the city's economy: GDP was up 6% in the first quarter year-on-year, and unemployment is down to 5.9% from a historic peak of 8.8% in 2003. People are again indulging in Hong Kong's favorite pastimes: shopping, job-hopping and flipping flats. Consumer confidence has led to confidence in the government. Only 23.5% of those surveyed in a poll conducted by the University of Hong Kong last week said they were dissatisfied with the administration, down dramatically from the 68% in a similar survey in 2003. When the Democratic Party held a rally recently to protest what it felt was yet another example of China's meddling in Hong Kong Beijing ruled that the next Chief Executive would serve only the remaining two years of Tung's five-year term less than 1,500 people showed up. "It's not necessary to march anymore," says Ringo Lee, a 28-year-old bank marketing manager who took to the streets last July 1 but is now preoccupied with hunting for a new apartment to buy. Says Professor Joseph Cheng, head of City University of Hong Kong's political science department and a top democratic strategist: "People appreciate China's significance in Hong Kong's economy, so it is difficult to mobilize them to criticize China."

Hong Kong's democratic movement is diverse and diffuse. The widespread feeling that the territory should be freer to run its own affairs is tempered by the reality that Hong Kong cannot survive without China's blessings. Discontent is often driven by short-term concerns, and the faction-riven Democratic Party seems incapable of playing the leadership role it should. "It's China that's become more open-minded and forward-looking," says Mandy Tam, a pro-democracy but independent legislator, "and the Democratic Party that's pushy."

Activists like Hung believe that the public's fickleness will swing back in the democrats' favor, not least because there remain so many doubts about the ability of the Hong Kong authorities to tackle issues like the wealth gap, health care, education and pollution. Hung thinks the territory needs a government with the sort of mandate that can only be acquired through proper elections. "This setback," she says, "is only a hibernation." But it could be a long nap.

• Chaim Estulin | Hong Kong
• Beijing has deftly tripped up Hong Kong's democracy movement