Quotes of the Day

Every parent knows the feeling. You let the kids go away to camp, and the next time you see them, they've grown so much that they can look you in the eye. That must have been a little how U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice felt when she arrived in Asia last week. Since Sept. 11, 2001, the focus of U.S. foreign policy has been the arc of crisis within the Islamic world, in which it has fought two wars and toward which it has adopted a revolutionary policy of change through democratization. Along the way, American leaders have had to spend hours, weeks, in endless tussles with European counterparts skeptical of their intentions. But while the bandwidth of policymaking in Washington was being absorbed by the Middle East and Europe, Asia just kept growing, and growing, and growing. When George W. Bush entered the White House in 2001, the Asian financial crisis was still a fresh memory. Now, India and China are two of the fastest-growing economies in the world, and both of them are developing geopolitical ambitions to match. Indonesia—the quintessential Asian basket case just eight years ago—last year celebrated the cleanest election it has ever had, and can at last look forward to playing a role in the region commensurate with its size. While the U.S. was otherwise engaged, Asians set down markers that whatever the world of the new century may look like, they are going to help shape it.

On her trip, Rice gave the impression that the U.S can live with this state of affairs. Indeed, Washington's relations with the three great Asian powers are excellent. From being a cold war near-ally of the Soviet Union, India has turned into a partner of the U.S., one to which Rice said Washington now offered "a decisively broader strategic relationship." Japan, where Rice gave her keynote speech of the week, has become much more than a regional friend. Japan's leaders now discuss with Washington common global objectives from poverty relief to nuclear proliferation. As for China, Rice told journalists, "We have the best relations that we've had in some time, perhaps ever." In case anyone missed the message, she continued: "We have no problem with a strong, confident, economically powerful China."

That was not, of course, Rice's only message. Wherever she went, she reiterated the Bush Administration's view that freedom and democracy are the essential underpinnings to sustained peace and prosperity. No question where that shaft was aimed. "We believe," she said, "that when China's leaders confront the need to align their political institutions with their increased economic openness, they will look around them in Asia and they will see that freedom works." Perhaps predictably, Xinhua, China's state-owned news agency, mentioned only Rice's complimentary remarks on China and did not refer to her comments on democracy and freedom. Some in China, ever suspicious of U.S. intentions, will bristle at Rice's language, and her belief that "freedom of religion and respect for human rights are part of the foundation of decent and successful societies." But for now, most observers believe the Chinese leadership wants to have good relations with the U.S, even if—as Jin Canrong of the People's University in Beijing puts it—China is hedging its bets by "devoting more attention to the European Union and neighboring countries."

The real risk to a peaceful coexistence between the U.S. and Asia's rising powers is not—at least, not yet—Washington's passion for democracy. It is that economic growth has not abolished old political grievances. Japan and China remain rivals, with the bitter memories of the last century corroding a growing commercial relationship. Beijing obsesses over the fact that Taiwan is not within its jurisdiction. India and China eye each other warily over the Himalayas. And when North Korea collapses—as some day it will—South Korea, Japan and China might yet all find themselves drawn into a contest over the future shape and power of the Korean peninsula.

It is because they do not yet quite trust one another that Asian political leaders are so keen that the U.S.—which they all trust, to a greater or lesser degree—maintains a close engagement with them. "The United States," said Rice last week, "is positioned to play a particularly constructive role in a region that is changing dramatically." Asians prayed that she meant it.

• Michael Elliott
• Condoleezza Rice visited an Asia that is flexing its muscles, but where powerful nations don't quite trust one another