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Catholics and protestants in Northern Ireland have seen peace deals fall apart time and again. But when the latest push for a final settlement between nationalists and unionists ran aground last week, it was due to a novel deal breaker: a $50 million bank heist.

Ulster's Chief Constable, Hugh Orde, announced Friday that he believed the brazen Dec. 20 robbery from the Belfast headquarters of Northern Bank had been the work of the I.R.A. — a statement that immediately derailed a power-sharing deal that had seemed close to a positive conclusion just weeks earlier.

The I.R.A. denied involvement, but even before Orde spoke, many in Northern Ireland believed the republicans — some of whom became deeply involved with organized crime during their 30-year fight against British security forces — were the only credible suspects. The gang struck as the bank closed — sidestepping the security system by taking hostage the families of the two employees who knew that day's access codes. While thousands of Christmas shoppers milled around the bank, they made three trips inside to pick up the stolen cash. Northern Ireland's monetary system is based on the British pound but uses notes printed by local banks. The theft was so big that Northern Bank decided to withdraw all its cash — more than $560 million — from circulation to make most of the stolen money worthless.

The political deficit looks harder to fix. "It's a serious setback, let's face it," Britain's Northern Ireland Secretary, Paul Murphy, told TIME. Orde didn't offer proof but, if true, his accusation means the robbery was planned at the same time the I.R.A. 's political allies in Sinn Fein were negotiating with the Irish and British governments. The unionists, who would have been its partners in a new power-sharing administration, now want Sinn Fein banned from office. That seems unlikely; as the main nationalist party in the province, it represents a quarter of voters.

The peace process has taken knocks before and survived. What may make this crisis different is that the robbery happened as the I.R.A.'s activity is supposed to be winding down for good. In December, I.R.A leaders were talking about destroying all their weapons; they promised to enter "a new mode" if a final peace deal was reached. But now that deal looks further away than ever.

• CHRIS THORNTON
• Northern Ireland's Police chief blames the I.R.A. for a $50m bank heist