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It is, of course, entirely possible that the campaigns are premature. Reid is losing by double digits in polls to two Republican candidates, former GOP state chairman Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, son of former scandal-plagued UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. But he has also raised nearly $10 million, compared with Lowden's $800,000 and Tarkanian's $650,000. Says a senior Democratic aide: "To watch them dance on his grave is awful and unseemly and uncomfortable."
And it could potentially backfire. Senator Patty Murray, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the Senate and a loyal Reid lieutenant, strikes many as an attractive alternative candidate. When Senator Robert Byrd, then chairman of the Appropriations Committee, was sidelined a couple of years ago because of health problems, it was Murray who stepped in and shepherded many of the bills through the chamber. She has a large, capable staff, and is already the Senator whom members turn to when they need help on the floor. In the end, when choosing a majority leader, Senators want someone who won't grandstand, who will take their whiny calls at 3 a.m. and, most of all, who will be effective. "Durbin and Schumer should watch out," a senior Democrat says. "One of the first rules in campaigning is don't start too early."
The original version of this article has been updated to include comments by the spokespersons for Schumer and Durbin. Both Senators deny that they are waging any kind of campaign to replace Senate majority leader Harry Reid.