Barack Obama supporters stand in the rain during a rally at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Va., in September
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It isn't just Obama's historic candidacy that's eroding the Republicans' small black constituency. Many black pastors who supported Bush cannot credibly suggest that their congregations support the Republican ticket, not after the Bush Administration's mishandling of Hurricane Katrina and the economic crisis that particularly threatens an already fragile black middle class. For many blacks, there is little evidence that McCain, who still has the stigma of initially opposing a Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in his home state of Arizona two decades ago, has a desire to cultivate the kind of relationships with black Republicans that Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush displayed.
All this should, theoretically, lay the groundwork for more black Democrats to follow Obama's lead in the future. But some cautious observers worry that an Obama loss would set a catastrophic precedent. The message will be, says Walters, the Maryland professor, "If you can't elect a black person for President in this atmosphere, where all the indicators point to the Democratic Party, including the economy, how do you do it?"