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South Korea Heading Down the Homestretch

6 minute read
John Greenwald

In Kwangju last week, angry crowds hurled rocks, bottles and sticks at Ruling Party Candidate Roh Tae Woo, forcing him to rush through his speech. In Seoul, a cheering throng of several hundred thousand heard fiery Dissident Kim Dae Jung renew his attack on military rule. In a five-city whistle-stop tour, rival Opposition Leader Kim Young Sam proclaimed the election a race “between justice and injustice.”

Welcome to Campaign ’87 South Korean-style. After nearly four decades of repressive rule, voters will go to the polls next Wednesday in the first free presidential contest since 1971. From Yonchon near the North Korean border to Cheju Island in the south, Koreans have thrown themselves into the landmark election with a vigor that belies their inexperience with the democratic process. Almost overnight, it seems, they have taken the skills and work habits that have helped them build one of the world’s most dynamic economies and applied them to the art of politics.

But while the election offers South Koreans a historic opportunity, it is also fraught with danger. The campaign has sparked bitter regional strife and sharp outbreaks of violence. Candidates have been pelted with everything from fruit to fire bombs, arousing fears of a military crackdown or a disruption of the voting process. That in turn could endanger South Korea’s plans to be host to the 1988 Summer Olympics, which the nation views as a symbol of its political and economic coming-of-age.

The race is primarily a three-way contest pitting Roh, 55, a former general who heads the ruling Democratic Justice Party, against veteran Opposition Leaders Kim Dae Jung, 62, and Kim Young Sam, 59. Of five minor candidates on the ballot, only former Prime Minister Kim Jong Pil, 61, is taken seriously. A conservative long shot, he is given little chance of winning but could turn out to be the spoiler by taking votes from Roh. At week’s end Socialist Hong Sook Ja, the only woman candidate, withdrew in favor of Kim Young Sam.

The roots of the frenzied campaign go back to June 10, when the Democratic Justice Party chose Roh as its candidate under a constitution that virtually guaranteed his victory. The handpicked choice of the autocratic President Chun Doo Hwan, another former general, Roh seemed ready to continue Chun’s policies as head of the military-backed government.

But the prospect of a rigged election set off weeks of street protests by students, soon joined by many middle-class citizens. On June 29, Roh bowed to popular demands and agreed to help draft a new constitution that called for a direct and open presidential vote. The contest became a three-way affair when Kim Dae Jung and Kim Young Sam could not agree on a single opposition candidate, and each decided to enter the race.

The front runners are anything but subtle in their campaign tactics. In an attempt to soften his military image, Roh has tried to cultivate an avuncular, almost cuddly manner. Election posters show him grinning and holding a young girl, who is whispering into his ear. But Roh can also talk tough. In a nationally televised campaign speech last week, he claimed that an opposition victory would lead to “political drifting and uncertainty,” which might endanger the Olympics and tempt Communist North Korea to attack.

Kim Dae Jung ran strongly, but narrowly lost the last presidential election in 1971. He spent much of the following 16 years in prison, under house arrest or in exile, and was even threatened with execution in 1980. The charismatic firebrand boldly asserted at his rally last week, “I, Kim Dae Jung, have already won the election.” But it was the more moderate Kim Young Sam who last month scored the campaign’s biggest coup. While declaring that “the call of history is to put a final end to military government,” he won the support of several past military leaders, including former Army Chief of Staff Chung Sung Hwa.

Some polls indicate that each of the three major candidates has a solid core of 20% support, while 10% could go to minor candidates and about 30% remain undecided. Given the size of the field and the fact that there will be no runoff, the winner may not need much more than 30% to 35% of the ballot.

Experts say Kim Young Sam appears to be gaining momentum as the middle-of- the-road candidate. Notes Han Sung Joo, a Korea University political scientist: “Both Kim Dae Jung and Roh Tae Woo are opposed by a majority of the voters. Kim Young Sam is clearly the most electable.” He adds that the contest is becoming a race between Roh and Kim Young Sam. No one, however, is quite ready to count out Kim Dae Jung. Though Han believes Kim Dae Jung will capture little more than 30% of the vote, he could still win if the minor candidates do better than expected, while Roh and Kim Young Sam divide the remainder of the vote evenly.

The U.S., which maintains 40,000 troops in South Korea and regards the country as a crucial buffer against North Korea and the Soviet Union, is an impartial but uneasy spectator. To the Reagan Administration, the question is less who wins than the size of the victory margin. “We can work with anyone,” says a State Department official. He fears, though, that a razor- thin win by any of the candidates would leave the new President without a clear mandate and lead to renewed instability.

That threat does not appear to preoccupy the South Koreans. Only last summer they seemed to be on the verge of chaos as tens of thousands of rock-throwing student protesters squared off almost daily against riot police. Instead of succumbing to civil chaos or a new military crackdown, the country defied all odds by laying down the constitutional groundwork for democratic reforms and advancing with astonishing speed to next week’s election. Having come so far so fast, South Korea remains uncomfortably aware of the danger that, as in Haiti, an edgy military just might step in and undo their gains with equally astonishing speed.

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