MIDDLE EAST: First Aid for the Cease-Fire

Rather like a doctor rushing to keep a frail patient alive, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger returns to the Middle East this week. His mission: to try to inject some vitality into the Arab-Israeli cease-fire he was instrumental in negotiating in early November.

The cease-fire is alive, but barely.

The tent at Kilometer 101 on the Cairo-Suez road, where Egyptian and Israeli officers had met to discuss ways of carrying out the ceasefire, remained empty all week. On both the Suez and Syrian fronts, United Nations observers reported increasing numbers of cease-fire violations, including an air duel over the Gulf of Suez fought by Israeli and Egyptian jets. From Tel Aviv and Cairo came warnings that full-fledged hostilities could be resumed at any moment.

Kissinger’s trip is aimed at reducing the chances of those hostilities and at making sure that Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Israel show up at the peace conference scheduled to convene on Dec. 18 at Geneva. There they will be joined by the U.S., the Soviet Union and U.N. Secretary-General Kurt Waldheim. Although Egypt late last week declared that it would attend the Geneva conference, it at first publicly hinted that it might not unless Israel first withdraws some of its troops from the west bank of the Suez Canal. Israel however has refused to budge until Egypt removes most of its troops and firepower from the east bank. This is the main reason why the talks at Kilometer 101 have been deadlocked.

Last week Finland’s Lieut. General Ensio Siilasvuo, commander of the U.N. Emergency Force, dashed between Cairo and Tel Aviv attempting to break the impasse in the Kilometer 101 talks. He succeeded only in gaining a promise from Israel to be a bit more flexible. This did not satisfy Egypt, whose President, Anwar Sadat, has been under strong pressure from Arab hawks to be tougher.

The Arabs argue, with some justification, that Israel so far has benefited most since the ceasefire. Israel has obtained the release of its P.O.W.s from Egypt (although at least 120 remain in Syria). Its troops remain in position to choke off all supplies to Egypt’s encircled Third Army; Israel has refused to return to the battle lines of Oct. 22, before the Third Army was encircled. Egypt views this as a serious violation of the cease-fire and as an indication that Israel cannot be trusted to keep its word. Top Egyptian officials hope that Kissinger can help break the deadlock by pressuring Israel to begin a troop withdrawal from the west bank.

At the Leash. If Israel continues to balk, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Ismail Fahmy said last week, war could again erupt. Egypt’s military commanders are said to be “straining at the leash,” confident that they could wipe out Israel’s west bank salient. Brigadier General Hassan Abu Saada, a commander of part of Egypt’s forces on the canal’s east bank, boasted that his troops are ready to fight. “Give me an order from Cairo,” he exclaimed, “and I’ll push on!” Israel Defense Minister Moshe Dayan scoffed at the Egyptian saber rattling. “The Egyptian Third Army was broken, and is kept alive by our mercy,” he told Siilasvuo. “If the Egyptians want to start the war again, the blood will be on their heads.”

Such talk may be no more than martial posturing. Nonetheless, a serious clash of troops would bring to a halt the current momentum toward peace. At his Washington press conference last Thursday, Kissinger expressed considerable concern that because “both sides are in the rear of each other, there is danger of military encirclement.” He concluded that “there is a very great need for separation of forces.”

If Kissinger pressures Israel to remove some of its troops from the west bank, and there is no reciprocal action by the Egyptians, Israel will become increasingly fearful about the Geneva conference, where it must look solely to the U.S. for support. To plead Israel’s case, Dayan flew to Washington last week. Is rael is very conscious of its diplomatic isolation, of the success with which the Arabs so far have wielded oil as a political weapon, and of the full backing the U.S.S.R. gives the Arabs. Moreover, Israel realizes it is further weakened by its domestic political disunity.

Last week a special meeting of the Labor Party central committee gave Premier Golda Meir an overwhelming vote of confidence, but the 18-hour marathon session betrayed some of the di visions plaguing the country. No sooner had the meeting begun than Deputy Premier Yigal Allon demanded that the whole Cabinet resign. He asserted that the entire Labor Party must accept the responsibility for the mistakes of the war. But some, he said, were more guilty than others. That was an undisguised attack on Dayan, who answered: “You can bring my resignation with the smallest hint. I am not glued to my seat.”

The Labor Party needs all the unity it can muster as it begins campaigning for the Dec. 31 Knesset (parliament) election. Israeli newspaper polls show Labor fast losing ground to the opposition Likud coalition, which is led by such hawks as Menachem Begin and Major General Ariel (“Arik”) Sharon. Until the election returns are in, the Arabs will have no assurance that any compromises made by Israel’s present government will be accepted by the next one—especially if Likud makes an impressive showing. Moreover, Israeli delegates will hardly dare take a stance in Geneva that could cost them votes on election day. Thus the conference will convene next week to hear the opening statements of all participants and will then recess until after the elections.

Returning Russians. Meanwhile, Middle East peace will depend on restraint by both sides. Even if there is no resumption of major fighting, Israel seems in for more violence. Last Tuesday a terrorist’s grenade exploded in the Old City section of Jerusalem, injuring 20; the following day a bomb exploded in an Israeli bus wounding 14 and killing one. Both incidents indicate the growing restlessness of the Palestinians living within the Israeli-occupied Arab territories. In the past month at least 60 suspected terrorists have been arrested in Israel for a series of attacks.

One hopeful sign last week in the Middle East was the return to Cairo of the wives and children of Soviet personnel stationed in Egypt. It was their evacuation in early October that presaged the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War. Now, at least, it seems that the Russians have enough faith in the ceasefire to plan the reopening of the Soviet school in Cairo at the start of next year.