No More Mr. Nice Guy

That loud groaning noise heard across northeast Asia this month was the sound of government officials in three countries realizing, to their horror, that President George W. Bush had been re-elected. One of those three is an implacable and longtime American foe, North Korea. Another is a would-be American global competitor, China. And the third is a U.S. ally, South Korea.

Despite their seemingly profound geopolitical differences, the leaders of all three of these countries had harbored scarcely concealed hopes that they would soon be rid of Bush. As the ballots came in, they recognized that they had miscalculatedbadly. South Korea’s Blue House, for one, called an emergency meeting of its National Security Council after the outcome became clear. Why the alarm? Because Pyongyang, Beijing and Seoul are all co-dependents in that great ongoing geostrategic A.A. meeting known as the “North Korean nuclear crisis.” Dubya, meanwhile, is a confirmed purveyor of The Cure.

As Bush begins his second term, it looks as if North Korea policy will assume a new prominence in American statecraftand the Administration will take a harder line on Pyongyang. Skeptics argue that Bush has never had a North Korea policy, only an attitude, and that he has more than enough on his plate in Iraq to keep him busy. But such arguments may “misunderestimate” the temperament of both Bush and the U.S. This is not a President who dreams of leaving behind a few new treaties as his political legacy; he thinks in more simple terms of making a dangerous world safer for America and its friends. The “six-party talks” status quoin which North Korea races furiously ahead in its quest for a nuclear arsenal while its neighbors China, Japan, Russia and South Korea prepare for the latest round of fruitless dialogue about “denuclearization”manifestly does not make anyone safer. With a President who views his re-election as a broad mandateand with a Republican majority in the Senate doing the “advise and consent” on foreign and security policylook for a midcourse correction in the U.S. approach to North Korea.

What to expect:
Regime Change (at the State Department) The resignation of Secretary of State Colin Powelland his replacement by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Ricemarks the beginning of a changing of the guard at Foggy Bottom. The President wants a diplomatic team that focuses on international-threat reduction a little more and on second-guessing the White House a whole lot less. With Dr. Condi (a Bush confidantindeed, a member of his mind-meld club) at the helm and a new crew with less of a striped-pants attitude, look for North Korea to become a more serious priority in the cross hairs of U.S. foreign policy.

A Business Plan for the Six-Party Talks Remember, Bush has an M.B.A. from Harvard. Those guys are taught to come up with indicators of successand of failurefor any risky venture. To date, evaluation of the talks has been unburdened by performance measures. Look for that to change in the coming year, with Washington explaining more clearly to its partners how it will be assessing progress. (Hint to China: paying Pyongyangagainjust to show up won’t count in the “success” column.) Don’t be surprised if Washington publicly declares this diplomatic investment a write-off.

Burden Shifting The Chinese government has been permitted to play both sides of the fence, sometimes running with the hares (Dear Leader and company), sometimes hunting with the hounds (Bush’s posse). That, too, should change soon. Beijing has a lot to lose if the talks it has been hosting break down, and even more is at stake if North Korea emerges as a de facto nuclear power on China’s doorstep. If Beijing has to carry a little more of North Korea’s heavy water, China will be that much more likely to pressure Pyongyang with words and by withholding aid.

Launching A Human-Rights Offensive The North Korean regime’s disposition to starve its own people is just the flip side of its disposition to play nuclear shakedown abroad. Look for a new push on North Korean human rights next year. The U.S. will soon appoint a special envoy for the issue, under the new North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004. And the European Union may want to cooperate with Washington on this one, given that Pyongyang is the world’s worst violator. The self-described human-rights champions who run South Korea these days will be shamefully AWOL in this fight, but that won’t matter. South Korea’s constitution offers citizenship to anyone who comes in from the North. If the U.S. can help arrange a transit route for refugees through China, the exodus will begin. When that happens, look for a better class of dictator in Pyongyangjust as the mass movements in 1989 improved the quality of governance in the former German Democratic Republic.