National Affairs: Last Guesses

Many an irrepressible politician, journalist and poll taker last week risked a flunking mark by guessing the answers to the Presidential election before they were officially available. Some of the guesses:

Literary Digest (2,350,000 straw votes by mail to telephone subscribers and automobile licensees): Landon 32 States, 370 electoral votes. Roosevelt 16 States, 161 electoral votes.

Gallup Poll (small sample groups of voters polled by mail and interview): Roosevelt 40 States, 477 electoral votes. Landon 6 States, 42 electoral votes (Connecticut and Rhode Island 50-50).

Crossley Poll (sample groups of voters polled by interview): Roosevelt 37 States, 406 electoral votes. Landon 10 States, 122 electoral votes (Wyoming 50-50).*

Hugh S. Johnson: “It’s doubtful whether Governor Landon will carry six States and he’s only absolutely certain of three. It’s another landslide.”

John D. M. Hamilton: “The Literary Digest poll underestimates Governor Landon’s strength. He will be elected by a landslide.”

James A. Farley: “In my humble judgment President Roosevelt will carry every State in the nation except Maine and Vermont. I sincerely believe this.”

*Both Gallup and Crossley polls, however, listed some 14 States as too close for accurate prediction.