HOW THE POLLS TRACKED THE CAMPAIGN

Plagued by the elusive support for George Wallace and harried by a remarkably high proportion of voters who angrily refused to discuss their choice, the nation’s major pollsters went into Election Day under a cloud of acrimony. George Gallup and Louis Harris had been markedly far apart for weeks on their reports of Hubert Humphrey’s strength. In late September, Gallup placed the Democratic nominee 15 percentage points behind, while Harris consistently pegged Humphrey much closer, sometimes only half as far back.

While both surveys were constant on Nixon, never varying more than 2%, Humphrey’s estimate rocketed dramatically. Two days before the election, Humphrey had risen from a low of 28% in the Gallup poll and 31% in the Harris rating to 40% in both, with Nixon placed by both surveys at 42%. Next day, in a move that led Nixon aides to charge that onetime Democratic Pollster Harris was trying to con the voters, Harris claimed that Humphrey had taken a 43-40 lead.

As the final returns seemed headed for a virtual tie in the popular vote, the rival surveys could rightly claim that they had come well within their acceptable error of 4%. Harris had Humphrey on the button, Nixon three points low. Gallup was one point low on Nixon and three on Humphrey. Both correctly forecast the Wallace vote. In the end, Gallup and Harris turned out to be reasonably accurate and had obviously restored some confidence in polls.