When India and Pakistan are at each other’s throats, as they’ve been for the past 16 months, they are openly and dangerously hostile: mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, deporting each other’s diplomats, test-firing nuclear-capable missiles. But when they start talking, they’re almost demure, as if steps towards peace are more awkward than those that might lead to war.
Early last week, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf ordered his foreign office to find out whether Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee might accept a phone call from Islamabad. The diplomats said he would. Musharraf told Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali to start dialing. During a brief conversation, Jamali, reading from prepared notes, agreed with Vajpayee’s earlier assertion that the countries should talk and formally invited him to Pakistan. On Friday, Vajpayee responded by announcing that India would restore full diplomatic relations and air links with Pakistan. The move re-opened the door that Delhi had slammed shut in December 2001, when terrorists tried to blow up India’s parliament building. And it revived long dormant hopes that India and Pakistan might resume a dialogue about Kashmir, the subcontinent’s most destabilizing issue. “Talks will begin very soon,” vowed Pakistan’s Minister for Information and Broadcasting Sheikh Rashid Ahmed.
Much of the credit for this turn of events belongs to Vajpayee. Last month, he traveled to Kashmir and told a crowd of 20,000: “Your destiny will change.” Days later, he dispatched an envoy to the region to open discussions with local political groups, saying for the first time that deliberations could include “outsiders” (i.e., Pakistan). Vajpayee then proposed direct talks with Islamabad to resolve all disputes, including Kashmir. Though his previous negotiations with Pakistani leaders stalled, the 78-year-old Vajpayee wants to be remembered as the man who brought peace to the region. “This will be the last chance for talks, at least in my lifetime,” he said in an emotional parliamentary address last Friday. He has asserted that jihadis are still crossing into Kashmir from Pakistani soil, which in the past would have precluded entertaining the idea of talks. But he’s softening this position—and infuriating hardliners in his government—because, he said, “This bloodbath should come to an end.”
An American hand is visible as well. Washington has for months urged the parties to engage, and this week U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is flying to the subcontinent, where he’s expected to pressure Pakistan to crack down on Kashmiri militancy. (Last Thursday, the U.S. added three Kashmiri separatist outfits to its list of terrorist groups). Violence has flared, however; last week, more than 60 people died in Kashmir. Perversely, even that confirms the changes at work: the rebels always attack when hopes for negotiations break out.
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