How Not To Catch A Spy

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Some White House sources blame the scandal on the culture of scientific sharing. "Scientists think differently than people in the national-security business," and the labs were "enormously porous," says an Administration official.

More important than whodunit is the question of how badly the leak damages American security. Some experts say China would eventually have miniaturized its nuclear weapons on its own. That's probably true, but now Beijing has apparently found a shortcut to the most modern technology. Smaller warheads mean Chinese missiles will be lighter, more mobile, easier to hide and able to hit multiple, longer-range targets.

Such missiles fit neatly into China's strategic plans for reclaiming Taiwan. Its military is modernizing fast, preparing to seize the island province by force if the government there opts for independence. In five or 10 years the People's Liberation Army could be equipped for the mission, and its new, hard-to-find nuclear missiles could be just the thing to deter the U.S. from stepping in. As a Chinese general once predicted to a senior Pentagon official, the U.S. will not intervene because it cares more about Los Angeles than Taipei. With the W-88 in stock, China could soon have the weapons to test its deterrence theory.