Good News for Obama in Ohio?

Ohio has lost 400,000 jobs since 2007, but Democratic candidates running for both governor and senator actually stand a chance in November

  • Danny Wilcox Frazier / Redux for TIME

    Ohio Governor Ted Stickland meets with supporters at a home in Massillon, Ohio.

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    Kasich insists the attacks are both unfair and bound to fail. "I was one managing director in a company of 30,000 employees, and I ran a two-man office in Ohio," he protests. "Frankly, what we need more of are politicians who understand how to create jobs." But Kasich was concerned enough to air a response ad of his own: "I didn't run Lehman Brothers," he tells the camera.

    It's a similar story in the race to succeed the retiring Ohio Republican Senator George Voinovich. In Lee Fisher, 58, Democrats have a candidate who is no one's idea of a star — a career politician who lacks Strickland's folksy touch. Nor has Fisher proved much of a fundraiser in this race. His Republican opponent, former GOP Congressman and Bush Administration official Rob Portman, had nearly $9 million on hand (to Fisher's $1.3 million) as of June 30. Some Washington Democrats call Fisher the kind of candidate they would typically consign to the can't-win bin.

    But for the moment, they're still giving Fisher short odds. One reason is that Portman, like Kasich, presents a wide target for Democratic counterattacks on economic themes. True, Portman, 54, is one of Ohio's most respected political figures, known for an even temperament and a sharp mind. But after 12 years of representing Cincinnati in the House, he served as George W. Bush's Trade Representative and then Budget Director. In Fisher's eager telling, then, Portman is a Washington insider and Bush sidekick who promoted Bush's free-trade policies — particularly those involving U.S. steel trade with China — that killed Ohio jobs. Portman calls those charges off base, pointing to cases he filed with the World Trade Organization against Chinese trade practices. Promoting his jobs plan, he accuses Fisher of harping on the past to divert attention from the state's dismal economy. "The message is pretty clear: if you're happy with the status quo, then I'm probably not your candidate," Portman says. His lopsided financial advantage may yet swamp Fisher (though union spending will narrow that gap). But for now, Democrats are thankful for such an easy chance to start a conversation about Bush's economic legacy.

    Economics, strictly speaking, isn't the only issue here. Democrats pilloried Kasich for his indifferent attitude toward whether NBA megastar LeBron James would leave the Cleveland Cavaliers. ("We've lost 400,000 jobs out here, and the last guy I worry about is LeBron James," Kasich huffed in a radio interview. Not that Strickland's cameo in a Web video urging LeBron to stay managed to keep him from going to Miami.) After a June rally in Lima, meanwhile, a local TV reporter confronted Strickland with another pressing question: What was he doing about the state's bedbug epidemic? (Yes, bedbugs.)

    But even if the issues can get picayune, these races have broad political importance. Outside groups are expected to spend millions to sway voters, to say nothing of the cash both parties are committing. Partly, that is a warm-up as they build their ground games for the next presidential election. Ohio, after all, remains the grand prize of presidential politics. Obama can lose every red state he turned blue in 2008 and still win re-election as long as he holds on to the Buckeye State. And that will be far easier with a Democrat in the governor's mansion. "It's more likely that Obama will win Ohio if I'm re-elected," Strickland says.

    That's why the President has already scheduled another trip to Ohio, in mid-August. However much Democrats say the races here are about the past, they are also about Obama's future.

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