A Royal Dressing-Down

A mandate can sometimes be a dangerous thing. Since scoring the largest electoral win in Thai history last February, Thaksin Shinawatra has proved to be a Prime Minister with no tolerance for criticism. He promised voters a return to prosperity, but as the country’s economy continues to crumble, Thaksin has lashed out at economists, academics, bankers, bureaucrats and news organizations that have questioned his policies. Citing the 11 million votes (out of 29.9 million cast) he won, the PM has told his detractors to support him or shut up. But last Tuesday, Thaksin got a very public dressing-down from a man he doesn’t dare tell to keep quiet, a man with a mandate infinitely more impressive than his own: King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

In his 55 years on the throne, King Bhumibol has made the constitutional monarchy a moral counterpoint to the slime pit of Thai politics. Revered by his subjects as semidivine and for his work among the poor, he intervenes in politics only during times of crisismost notably ending the bloodshed of the May 1992 democracy uprising. He prefers giving advice to Premiers in private. So, as Thaksin and his ministers sat in the Dusidalai Throne Hall awaiting the King’s annual birthday address to the nation, they were expecting the usual sermon on development peppered with parables and gentle jibes. Instead, Bhumibol, 74, warned Thailand was heading for catastrophe, and lambasted its political class for their arrogance, intolerance and double standards. “The Prime Minister has a long face now after I mentioned catastrophe,” the King said. “But I’m telling the truth. I think we all know that our country is not developing, that everything seems to be in decline.” By the time the King was done, Thaksin’s face was red.

If Thaksin can’t argue with the King, he also can’t argue with the numbers. As a candidate, he pledged Thais would have more money in their pockets in six months, thanks to his programs for suspending farmers’ debts, nationalizing bad loans and doling out seed money for small enterprises to every village. But after half a year, GDP is down 1.4%, exports have dropped 11.7%, investment has fallen by 6% and private consumption by 0.4%, and bad debts are still plentiful. Thaksin blames the world economic slowdown, but while others cautioned that was coming, he still promised boom times. Not all the numbers are heading south. Unemployment is up 0.6% and the cost of bribes is up 15%, according to a study sponsored by the Office of the Civil Service Commission. Thaksin’s economic policies may not be solely to blame for Thailand’s economic woesmost of Asia is teetering on recessionbut some of his actions, especially his government’s decision to raise interest rates during such a downturn, have been counterintuitive to say the least. Central bank governor Chatu Mongol Sonakul advised him that raising rates was the wrong policy; the governor was fired soon thereafter.

Other independent voices have also felt the Prime Minister’s wrath. Thaksin has used his weekly radio address to ridicule some of Thailand’s leading bankers and economists for making gloomy forecasts. Newspaper editors say Thaksin’s Shin Corp., the country’s largest advertiser, pulls ads if they report unfavorably on the government. (Government officials deny this charge.) Unhappy with coverage of himself in the foreign media, Thaksin and his advisers have also accused journalists from several Western news publicationsincluding TIMEof bias and of being part of a smear campaign against him. The climate of intimidation has some opposition politicians and columnists calling the Prime Minister “Field Marshal Thaksin,” a reference to Thailand’s days of military dictatorship. “People can’t be made to think the same way,” King Bhumibol admonished during his speech. “When we have an idea and others say it is not right, they have the right to say so.”

The day after the King’s address, Thaksin told reporters the monarch was speaking to the whole nation, not just him. Even before the speech, Thaksin’s approval ratings were starting to slip, falling from a high of 72% in May to 52% in August, according to a poll by Bangkok’s Assumption University. Pollsters said it hadn’t fallen further because people don’t see any alternative. That shouldn’t lull Thaksin into thinking he can ignore the King’s advice. Says Sem Pringpuangkaew, a Thaksin loyalist who organized the nationwide petition drive in support of the Prime Minister while the PM was on trial for concealing his assets earlier this year: “Everybody has to listen to the King, including the Prime Minister.” If he doesn’t, Thaksin may find his vaunted mandate melting away.