The Republicans’ Election Scare

In any other year, Mississippi’s First Congressional District would not have been in doubt. President George W. Bush won that northeastern corner of the state with two-thirds of the vote in 2004, the same proportion that elected the most recent Republican Representative in 2006. But on May 13, Travis Childers, a pro-life Democrat who supports gun rights, swept the district with 54% of the ballots.

It was the third leg of this spring’s Democratic special-election trifecta. In March, Republicans lost the once safe Illinois seat held by former Speaker Dennis Hastert, followed by a loss in a Louisiana stronghold earlier this month to Democratic upstart Don Cazayoux. On Capitol Hill, Democrats did not bother to contain their glee. “The Republicans can run, but they can’t hide in any district in America,” crowed Maryland Representative Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the Democratic election effort.

Republicans struggled to avoid panic. The party’s leader in the House, John Boehner, called the result a “wake-up call.” The head of the gop election effort, Representative Tom Cole, told his fellow caucus members to “take stock of their campaigns” before the general election in November. His message was unmistakable: The national party cannot protect them. Republicans spent at least $1.3 million to defeat Childers and even flew down Vice President Dick Cheney for a last-minute appearance. “Voters remain pessimistic about the country and the Republican Party in general,” Cole explained.

Such harsh realities may not sink presumptive gop nominee John McCain, who polls well ahead of the Republican brand in general. But they do portend the possibility of a Democratic majority not seen in Congress since the 1980s. Or as Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, put it, “Republicans have to worry that this tide could turn into a tsunami by November.”