The Limits of Power

The economic influence of the world’s rising power grows by the day. Its trade surplus mounts inexorably, as does its stash of foreign exchange — the essence of influence in today’s world. Meanwhile, its direct investment, loans and aid to poorer countries soar, especially in resources-rich Africa. Its embassies grow in size and influence, often surpassing those of the United States, whose power around the world seems to be waning. It’s no wonder that diplomats, academics and journalists around the world speculate with increasing frequency about the growing “soft power” of the new kid on the block, and how there seems to be so little the flagging U.S. can do about it.

And as we all know, Japan went on to become the new superpower. American workers now sing Japan’s national anthem and do calisthenics every day before going to work in Japanese-owned companies, while little girls all over the world learn the tea ceremony and wear kimono.

OK, I made that second paragraph up. But not the first. In the late ’80s and early ’90s, as a bureau chief in Tokyo, I did my bit to help forge the conventional wisdom about the grim future of the U.S. That we were wrong about Japan’s supposed soft power — that’s to say, a nation’s ability to get other countries to do what it wants without coercing them — became laughably obvious about halfway through the ’90s. Journalists then spent the latter half of the ’90s writing about Japan’s “lost decade.”

It’s useful to keep that in mind as the trope about soft power again gets earnestly bandied about, only this time with China as the newly ascendant power. Long a favorite subject among policy wonks, the discussion has now gone mainstream. In May, Joshua Kurlantzick published a book titled Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power Is Transforming the World, while the International Herald Tribune has in recent days highlighted Beijing’s efforts to woo the government of East Timor, in part by financing construction projects.

Let’s first state the obvious: China’s influence, particularly in its East Asian backyard, is burgeoning. That’s a result of China’s torrid growth in the last decade, as once suspicious neighbors have increasingly been drawn into its sphere of economic influence. At the same time, every poll shows admiration for the U.S. diminishing abroad, thanks mainly to its inept flailing in Iraq. But from there, be careful about what conclusions to draw. It’s one thing to say China’s economic clout is rising, but quite another to say that its soft power is on the rise. The two aren’t the same: soft power is not about a government’s inherent attractiveness, but a society’s — of which a government is only a part.

That’s why the talk about China’s soft power is exaggerated. There’s no question that China’s economic success, coupled with its ongoing political repression, is a godsend to a lot of governments, particularly despots. It says to them: see, your citizens can be economically satisfied without you having to worry about this democracy stuff. China ostensibly offers an economic model in which state-owned companies continue to play a big role. And when things go wrong — when, say, companies obsessed with cost cutting contaminate food exports — you can swiftly execute (as China did on July 10) the head of the country’s Food and Drug Administration. Forget the tiresome headache of drawn-out legal proceedings; you can show a mortified populace at home and abroad a bloody head on a pike and get on with things. If you’re a developing world dictator, what’s not to like?

But soft power’s real potency comes not from what other nations’ governments think of you, but what their citizens think. It’s about how a country is perceived, what it stands for. And a lot of people know there’s more to China than just 10% GDP growth. They know it has now, by some estimates, overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest source of CO2 emissions. That 13 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities are in China. That Beijing censors its press and the Internet with withering efficiency.

I’m not even sure China is the real comer in Asia when it comes to soft power. Think of India, and what comes to mind? Poverty? Sure. A tempestuous relationship with Pakistan? Check. But how about Bollywood, booming software and high-tech industries, and a vigorous democracy?

Those who exaggerate the rise of China’s soft power — and mourn the U.S.’s loss of it — tend to dismiss democracy. In the U.S., they’ll often say, it produced George W. Bush, who begat the Iraq mess in democracy’s name. But Bush is gone in a year and a half, and his party has already been tossed out of power in Congress. Meanwhile, in China, the Communist Party will still be in power in 2009 and, I’d bet, for a long time to come. And 1.3 billion people, whether the economic miracle goes on or not, will have no real say in the matter. That, you might say, is a hard fact.