Four Key Lessons

(2 of 2)

Jiang's task now is to declare victory, over and over. In the coming weeks, party cells will meet to discuss "how Jiang forced the U.S. to its knees," says a member. But Jiang remains vulnerable. These days, he's trying to show his statesmanship by dissuading Washington from selling Aegis-equipped destroyers to Taiwan. If the radar deal goes through, the generals will be outraged. To his chagrin, Jiang's final grade on this crisis may ultimately be up to the U.S.

--By Matthew Forney/Beijing

3 Reel In the Old Line
Just because it sounds good on the campaign trail doesn't mean it works

When it comes to China, presidential candidates love to talk tough. Once they get into office, though, the talk often tempers. Bill Clinton said he would never "coddle dictators" as his predecessor had, but he wound up embracing Beijing as a "strategic partner." On the stump, George W. Bush suggested that Clinton was too soft on China, but last week it was Bush who was lightening his position. By the end of the 11-day standoff, some of the President's early swagger was gone; in its place was a letter saying the U.S. was "very sorry." Has Bush changed his mind about China?

White House insiders say he merely did what needed to be done to secure the release of the 24 crew members. That's how it is with diplomacy: something is always getting in the way. With the Americans freed, Bush's inclination to slap back at their jailers will still be checked by the $116 billion in annual trade between the two countries. "It in some sense confirms that this is a complicated relationship, a very complex relationship," admits a senior White House adviser. Bush's sterner remarks regarding China in the Rose Garden last Thursday--after the crew had been released--are closer to his true feelings about that country. But in his speech, he clearly exempted the use of trade as a weapon of retaliation. That's a disappointment to one audience the remarks were supposed to mollify: conservative anti-China hard-liners in the G.O.P., who had been publicly silent for the most part during the crisis but who were threatening to grow more vocal. Bush has still other options. Among them: canceling a planned visit to China in October, or trying to block Beijing's bid for the 2008 Olympic Games. And though some anti-China folks in the White House were eagerly chatting up plans for a revenge move last week, it is likely that Bush will conclude that retaliation is not worth the damage it might do to what may be the most important bilateral relationship in the world.

--By James Carney and John F. Dickerson/Washington

4 Watch the Kids
China's teens and 20s show signs of incipient--and threatening--nationalism

Communism is dead. Hence many of China's top leaders have been hunting for a new national idea to justify the continued existence of the party. Economic modernization continues to be a viable theme. But the spy-plane incident pointed up another seductive ideology: nationalism. At first glance, it seems a neat trick--to substitute loyalty to the government with loyalty to the state. But as Beijing's leaders were reminded last week, nationalism is tough to control.

That hasn't stopped the party from at least toying with the patriotic on/off switch. You could see the process playing out in real time on the Internet, where the nation's censors worked overtime to sharpen the anti-American fervor by erasing pro-U.S. Web postings. The website of the People's Daily, the nation's largest paper, employed nine monitors, who sifted through 20,000 postings a day to make sure sentiment agreed with the party line.

No wonder that the Chinese public was puzzled and outraged when the Americans were released. Beijing banned the kind of protests that had convulsed the capital two years ago after a U.S. bomber hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo conflict. But students wanted revenge, or at least a trial for the U.S. soldiers. The propaganda machine tried its best, touting the U.S.'s "very sorry" pledge. Internet censors worked around the clock again, this time erasing messages that criticized Jiang for capitulating to Washington. But the fervor remained.

Americans who once thought they could count on the enlightenment of McDonald's-eating Chinese youth may find this faith misplaced. Youngsters under the age of 25 are those most eager for China to show its muscle. "We will learn all the things you Americans teach us," says Qian Fei, a 22-year-old sitting at a Beijing sports bar and watching Chinese basketballer Wang Zhizhi's debut in the NBA. "And then we will use what we learned to beat you."

--By Hannah Beech/Beijing