Philippines Repeats a Cycle

Former swashbuckling movie star Joseph Estrada's presidency of the Philippines is a wrap. After having announced that he would call snap elections in which he would not stand, the opposition, backed by the military, gave the disgraced head of state a 12-hour ultimatum to vacate his post — and he did. The demand for his immediate resignation centered around corruption allegations, which had formed the basis of an impeachment hearing that collapsed earlier this week amid political maneuvering, sparking a wave of demonstrations in the capital that prompted a majority of Estrada's ministers to resign and coaxed the armed forces onto the side of the opposition. The writing was on the wall for Estrada Friday when military commanders appeared at a mass rally to announce that they had transferred their support to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the vice president who has led the call for Estrada's ouster and who has now taken the reins as president.

A revolution of the middle class

The final act of Estrada's tenure bore a striking resemblance to the "People's Power" revolution that had toppled the erstwhile dictator Ferdinand Marcos some 15 years earlier, but it was also different in many respects. The cast of characters was the same in many respects, with the likes of former President Cory Aquino and Cardinal Jaime Sin, the spiritual leader of the Philippines' large Catholic community, joining the protesters. But this time the military had little truck with the man in power, while the country's impoverished majority reacted with mixed feelings — they had been the support base that had propelled the populist Estrada into power, and some rallied to support him in the face of an almost entirely middle-class insurrection. But for most, the tales of Estrada's gambling kickbacks and underworld connections that emerged during his impeachment had shattered his election promise to end corruption, and they simply stood passively by as the generals and bishops, politicians, businessmen and students overthrew him.

Successor vows economic liberalization

Incoming President Arroyo is a modest and moderate economist and former Georgetown University classmate of President Clinton, and she has vowed to pursue the economic liberalization policies started by the conservative former president Fidel Ramos. But it remains far from clear that Estrada's removal will end the corruption and almost theatrical political instability that have become endemic to the Philippines. Business and politics have been intimately and often improperly intertwined for decades in the Philippines, and the World Bank estimates that corruption has cost the country some $48 billion over the past 20 years. It was precisely by (falsely) promising to eradicate corruption that Estrada had first cast himself in the role of a champion of the poor. In the final analysis, though, he may prove to have been a symptom rather than the cause of his nation's malaise.