"I think that is an illusion. The recent developments make it very difficult for Arafat even to reach an agreement with any Israeli leader, because Arafat has Arabized the conflict, Islamicized it — made it a concern of the whole Islamic world. Arafat is now not in a position to help Barak. Even if there are new talks, what's going to happen is that a crazy Hamas guy will turn the table upside down by setting off a bomb somewhere.
"I think also that the intifada has conveyed a message to Israelis, both left- and right-wing, that they cannot trust the Palestinians. Will Arafat be able to make the Israelis trust him in six months? It would take centuries, not months, to win back their trust. In fact, if Arafat is seen to be supporting Barak, that would be a problem for Barak himself."
So what can Barak do?
"I personally think Barak is going to do the opposite of a peace agreement. Perhaps he will go to a very striking military operation. He has to impress the Israeli public. Having a deal with Arafat will not impress the Israeli public, because the Israelis will see it as a fake peace.
"Perhaps Barak will think in military terms, and deliver something that will raise their morale. In Israel you raise morale through extraordinary military operations — such as going to Lebanon and freeing the three soldiers held by Hezbollah. That would win support for Barak more than making a deal with Arafat."
That doesn't say much for Barak's chances of winning the election.
"It's too early to predict, but right now his chances of being reelected are very dim. He succeeded in uniting the politicians, but the man in the street dislikes him and disagrees with him. He wasn't born to be a statesman; he was born to be a soldier."
How will the Palestinian Authority (PA) respond to the Israeli election — will they try to behave in certain ways to effect a more favorable outcome?
"The PA people have reached the point of being indifferent to the outcome of the election. Some in the PA even say they prefer Likud and Netanyahu, because the old Netanyahu was so hated that he helped win international support for the Palestinians. But this is the Middle East, and things change rapidly. Any political map you draw today will be out of date in six months."