"The vote represents a sanction by the people against the present coalition government. In 1996, when there was a massive vote for the Democratic Convention, which is now in power, Rumanians wanted to see how a new party would run the country. Now they've withdrawn all their support from this same party, and it isn't even going to achieve enough votes to get into a parliament. It's a statement that you didn't do what we expected you to do, so we will ignore you." What had Rumanians expected of their government?
"The Democratic Convention had promised economic reform, and warned that it would come at a price. But voters felt that they'd paid the price and sacrificed for four years, and then nothing had happened. It was a coalition government that kept pulling in different directions, and the last four years have been a political circus, with members of the government blaming their coalition partners. People got sick of that.
"They also failed to fight corruption as they promised. Now comes Vadim Tudor as a man of slogans and dirty language, promising to confiscate illegal fortunes and punish the bad guys. But people were disappointed, and Vadim Tudor presented himself as their savior."
So why did Rumanians choose to believe a right-wing ultra-nationalist?
"It's not that they believe him; it's an act of spite to show how sick they are of the present government. Many chose Vadim Tudor to express that frustration, because the socialist leader, Ion Iliescu, has been in power before.
"The socialists say the country is on the brink of failure, and then along comes Vadim with slogans about how you have to govern this country with machine guns. And that has great appeal to some. Young people between 18 and 44, many of them have no place to work, all doors are closed to them, no future — 30 percent of them voted for Vadim, more even than for Iliescu. He also had support from former secret policemen and desperate old people. Vadim has good charisma and he knows how to manipulate people.
"It was a mistake for Iliescu to talk of a national catastrophe, because that allowed Vadim to proclaim that he is the answer. People have little confidence in Iliescu, and they find Vadim Tudor more interesting to watch, even when he says things that are nuts. Rumanians are not nationalistic, but they're expressing their sickness. [After the collapse of communism] they voted for the left, who did nothing. In '96, they said let's see if the center right does anything, and nothing happened. Now they're sick of everything. Iliescu will win the runoff, but this is like a warning to him to keep his promises."