"The Liberal party government that has been in power for seven years is seen by many people as the best choice for Canada. For that reason, many people feel the Liberals are bound to win, so why bother to vote? And each of the opposition parties presents its own set of problems for most voters. So none of the parties has really managed to generate any excitement in this election. It's the problem of an election in prosperous times. Things are good in Canada right now, and there's not a lot to interest the electorate in the campaign."
Under those circumstances, there's always the temptation to play on voter fears to drive them to the polls. Has that played a role in the Canadian election?
"The main challenger to the ruling Liberal party is the conservative Canadian Alliance. The Liberal campaign strategists have tried to paint the Conservative Alliance as very right-wing, suggesting that it is a party that would want to reopen discussion on legal abortion and on capital punishment, which is not used in the Canadian legal system. Free medical services are also considered sacred here, and the Liberals have — somewhat unfairly — painted the Alliance as a party that plans to bring in a private medical system on a two-tier basis, like Britain. The Liberals are painting it as an American system, and therefore supposedly bad."
Some reports have suggested that many Liberal supporters are dissatisfied with the leadership of Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and will vote for him holding their noses. How valid are those reports?
"Well, there's an element of truth in them, although such broad sweeps obviously eliminate nuances. What many liberal voters don't like about Chretien is that he's perceived as arrogant, although that perception may be exaggerated. His party is seen as pushing the limits of ethics in terms of pork barrel issues. There's a whiff of corruption, a whiff of arrogance. And of course some voters simply don't like some of his policies. So he's not the perfect candidate, although there may be no such thing. He is solid and proven, even if not the most charismatic politician in Canada. But the country is doing well, and that might keep him in power."
Speaking of charisma, does the shadow of the ultra-charismatic former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, who died recently, still loom over politicians such as Chretien?
"Today's politicians are obviously sometimes compared with Trudeau, usually to their own detriment. To a certain extent, the legacy of Trudeau may have helped the Liberal party. His death reawakened discussion of the values associated with the great Liberal party tradition, and its legacy in government. Chretien may have gotten some mileage out of that."
On the whole, not an election that is going to change Canada's political course?
"No, we're unlikely to see big changes, because people aren't particularly keen to make any right now. Nobody will be surprised if Chretien wins a majority, even though his detractors would like to see him fall short of majority and be forced to share power. But because times are good, Canadians aren't all that keen to get rid of him."