(4 of 5)
Secretary of State Colin Powell has told the BBC that the U.S. may go ahead and oust Saddam Hussein even if he complies with UN resolutions on weapons inspections. He told the British broadcaster that removing the Iraqi leader was the most effective way of disarming Iraq — a position echoed by Britain's foreign secretary Jack Straw on Wednesday. The more hawkish voices in the Bush administration prefer to avoid a return of arms inspectors to Baghdad, for fear of slowing the momentum towards an invasion. But even Britain, Washington's closest ally, is committed to testing Saddam's compliance with the inspection regime as a means of securing UN approval for any attack.
Prime Minister Tony Blair's dossier indicting Saddam has made a strong case for disarmament, but it also ignited a revolt inside his own party against any quick march to war. Reviving the inspection regime, possibly with tougher terms and tighter deadlines, remains the focus of the UN Security Council as discussion turns back to Iraq on Wednesday. Veto-wielding permanent members of the council continue to wrangle over the timing and content of a new resolution, but indications at this stage are that Russia will seek to delay any new resolution until chief UN arms inspector Hans Blix returns to UN headquarters in New York from a meeting with Iraqi officials in Vienna on September 30 to discuss the planned return of inspectors. But any new resolution adopted at this stage is unlikely to include the authorization of force, with most of the Security Council likely to support France's position that such authorization should be contained in a second resolution if the Council deems that Iraq is refusing to comply with a new inspection program.
The delays in winning UN approval are likely to infuriate the hawks in Washington, although military planning for an invasion is steaming ahead even amid the diplomatic arm-wrestling. And Powell's comments suggest the administration is not about to lose its momentum on Iraq. That also appears to be helping the President's party in the midterm election campaign, with GOP strategists working to shift voters' focus away from the economy and onto Iraq.
Bush's Other Mideast Problem
Efforts to win all-important Arab consent for an invasion of Iraq are have not been helped by the new standoff at Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah. Political calculations may have prompted Washington to abstain on, rather than veto a UN Security Council resolution demanding Israeli withdrawal from Arafat's compound — the U.S. had previously vowed to veto any resolution that didn't explicitly denounce specific Palestinian groups responsible for terror attacks. But Arab representatives did not lose the opportunity to question why the standards of compliance and enforcement of Security Council resolutions were different for Israel and Iraq. President Bush in recent days has turned up the rhetorical pressure on Israel to withdraw, calling the siege "unhelpful" and unlikely to stop terrorism or encourage Palestinian reform. But Israel demurred, saying it would withdraw only when the PA stopped terrorist groups from attacking Israelis. Sensing a diplomatic opportunity, Yasser Arafat is posturing defiance and rejecting Israeli demands and reported Arab compromise proposals. The siege helps Arafat stay the march of Palestinian reformists looking to kick him upstairs. But more troubling to the Bush administration is the growing signs of a revival of Palestinian street protests sparked by the current clampdown. Clashes between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian civilians defying curfew are not the sort of imagery the administration wants on Arab TV screens as it seeks support on Iraq.
Iran Claims Vindication
Iran's leaders seldom find much to cheer about in the words of President Bush, but that's changed with all the war talk on Iraq. Tehran's army on Tuesday claimed that Washington's denunciation of Iraq's invasion of Iran and its use of chemical weapons in their eight-year war vindicates what Iran has been saying all along. Back at that time, of course, Washington saw things a little differently.