Do We Still Need the Saudis?

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The Saudis believe that the U.S. won't try to go to war without them. But in the war rooms inside the Pentagon and at Central Command in Tampa, Fla., military strategists no longer think the U.S. needs the Saudis to dislodge Saddam. Strategists say a war against Iraq would require as many as 200,000 troops, with forces launching from Kuwait, Turkey and the smaller gulf emirates, reinforced by a massive U.S. Navy and Marine presence. The U.S. already has 10,000 Army troops at Kuwait's Camp Doha, where the Pentagon has stored tanks and other weapons. Some 3,000 U.S. troops man the al-Udeid air base in Qatar, just across the gulf from Iraq. The military has added new runways to a 15,000-ft.-long airstrip that is big enough to serve as the backup landing area for the space shuttle. General John Jumper, Air Force chief of staff, says the military is upgrading al-Udeid for use as a command-and-control center if the Saudis put CAOC off-limits.

The idea that the U.S. no longer needs to keep 6,000 troops in Saudi Arabia must frighten the royal family. While the princes occasionally grumble about the risks associated with a U.S. troop presence in Saudi Arabia—namely, bin Laden's demand that the House of Saud be deposed for hosting the infidels—the Saudis know they can't afford to lose the guarantee of U.S. protection. Since the Gulf War, the kingdom has spent $270 billion on high-tech weapons, but its forces still lack the training and skills to make them work. As a result, the regime is helpless against external threats, and Iran could become one even if Iraq is neutralized. "They need us more than we need them," says a U.S. diplomat in the region. "It's not a country that can defend its interests without a formidable ally. And the Saudis don't have an alternative to us."

For all their gripes about U.S. foreign policy, the Saudis' only weapon of protest is oil. And the regime isn't about to risk losing oil revenues at a time when the population is getting restless. The princes live lavishly, but ordinary people have had their lifestyles thrashed. For now the Sauds' hold on power seems secure, but it is a sign of the government's anxieties that Abdullah has taken steps to loosen the political system and crack down on corruption in the 30,000-person royal family.

What the Sauds have not done is provide their people with an alternative to the insular world view peddled by the country's Wahhabist clerics. Saudi liberals like Professor Enazy who seek to counter the extremists still find themselves muzzled. Drinking coffee in the refuge of a Riyadh hotel room, Enazy says the government has warned him not to criticize the kingdom's religious establishment. "If I publish anything, I'll get kicked out of a job," he says. "And yet they allow the extremists to get away with anything they want." The U.S. has provided little support to those moderate voices inside Saudi Arabia, largely to avoid doing anything that would undermine the regime and disrupt the world's energy market. But that's no longer good enough. As Sept. 11 showed, the security of the U.S. depends on more than cheap oil.

—With reporting by Massimo Calabresi and Mark Thompson/ Washington, Scott MacLeod/ Riyadh and J.F.O. McAllister/London