Mideast Monitor: Why Gloom Follows Bush Speech

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Who's Besieging Whom?
(April 26, 5pm)

Under pressure from the Bush administration — or, at least, that part of it concerned to restore a peace process — Ariel Sharon is now suggesting that Arafat can leave his compound, and go anywhere in the West Bank, but without those besieged there with him. That would suggest Washington is pressuring the Israeli leader to end the standoff in Ramallah. But Arafat has little incentive to accept Sharon's conditions. Being besieged in his office has made him the most popular leader in the Middle East, while it's proving increasingly troublesome to Sharon. Meanwhile, the U.N. is pressing ahead with its fact finding mission to Jenin, despite Israeli efforts to delay the inquiry to secure guarantees of indemnity from prosecution for any of its personnel who give evidence.

The Economy, Stupid
(April 26, 5pm)

Haaretz sees Israel's multibillion dollar budget deficit and zero growth as the "price of the occupation." An editorial warns, "While the developed world, and particularly the United States, is showing clear signs of recovery, Israel is sinking deeper and deeper into recession. In the absence of any political horizon to the conflict, which would include an end of the occupation, this decline is liable to become permanent." Things look even worse on the Palestinian side. The BBC reports that a meeting of international donors in Oslo agreed to provide $1.2 billion in aid to rebuild Palestinian infrastructure destroyed by the Israeli military campaign — and that's $800 million short of the World Bank's estimated requirement of the cost of restoring basic services. A Norwegian finance official added wanly that the international community hoped Israel would not "destroy the investment that we are financing."

After "Defensive Shield"
(April 26, 5pm)

Israelis are united behind Ariel Sharon's offensive in the West Bank, which they see as proactive self-defense against suicide bombers. But they're sharply divided over what comes next. Many have expressed concern that Sharon appears to lack a political endgame, and some of those are now stepping forward with plans of their own. The Jerusalem Post reports growing enthusiasm for proposals by various non-partisan groups for getting out of the West Bank, withdrawing many of the Israeli settlements there and building a border fence to separate Israel from the Palestinians. That, of course, dovetails to some extent with what the Arab League has proposed. And also with the thinking of Israel's leading military theorist, the Hebrew University's Martin Van Creveld, who argued recently that "Whether because Mr Arafat does not want to end terrorism or because he cannot do so, another Oslo Agreement is not on the cards. Therefore Israel's one salvation is to get out and build a wall — a wall so high not even the birds can fly over it — and permit the Palestinians to establish their state on the other side of it, as the Saudi peace plan suggests? Few terrorists succeed in breaking through the security fence that surrounds the Gaza Strip. In fact the only reason why Israel still faces problems in that part of the country is because, against all military logic, it insists on maintaining a presence on both sides of the fence instead of withdrawing to one side of it." He insisted earlier this week (see below) that not a single settlement will be withdrawn on his watch.

Sharon Floats a Balloon
(April 25, 4.30pm)

Despite Washington?s efforts to rekindle some form of peace process, Ariel Sharon appears determined to rid himself of Yasser Arafat and cement his own hold over the West Bank. The Israeli prime minister told the New York Times that he may consider letting Arafat leave his Ramallah office and go to Gaza, saying "with Arafat, no one will be able to make peace." But right now Arafat isn?t looking for a new address, and Palestinian leaders scoffed at the suggestion — after all, Sharon himself is as much a prisoner of the current standoff in Ramallah as Arafat is. And Sharon?s view of the Palestinian leader as anathema to peace is pretty much the same view as the Palestinians and even Israel?s Arab peace partner Egypt has of the Israeli prime minister. But the fact that Sharon is discussing the prospect of relocating Arafat suggests he may be preparing the ground for a move to eject the Palestinian leader, despite Washington?s opposition.

Theater of the Absurd at Arafat HQ
(April 25, 4.30pm)

Four Palestinian militants wanted for the killing of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi have been tried and convicted by a military court — inside Yasser Arafat?s besieged Ramallah compound. One of them was even sentenced to 18 years hard labor, and there?s certainly no shortage of manual work to do in the ruins of Ramallah. Unimpressed by the proceedings, Israel continues to demand their extradition, although the Palestinian Authority insists that under the Oslo agreements it is the proper authority to try the men. But it?s not lost on wider Palestinian society that not only the accused, but also the judges, prosecutor and the PA security men summarily appointed as 'lawyers' are all, in fact prisoners of the Israelis, right now. The Economist quotes a Fatah member saying that in the wake of the Israeli offensive, the PA itself is something of an illusion, now.

Jenin: Israel Won the Battle; Who Will Win the PR War?
(April 24, 5pm)

Israel's demand to renegotiate the composition and terms of a U.N. inquiry into the events at Jenin are proving to be grist to the mill for the Palestinian PR campaign. The Israelis expressed the fear that a panel composed of one senior diplomat and two humanitarian officials would be insufficient to understand the military dimension of the problem Israel faced in Jenin, and be more inclined to reach negative conclusions on the humanitarian consequences of the operation. The Palestinians decry the Israeli demands as part of a cover-up effort. But Secretary General Kofi Annan appears inclined to accommodate Israeli concerns by adding a U.S. general to the panel and widening its terms of reference to include investigation on the activities of Islamic Jihad and other groups in the camp before the Israeli attack. And the Bush administration has warned Sharon that despite understanding Israeli concerns, the U.S. believes it is in Israel's best interests for the fact-finding mission to proceed.

Mapping the Next Suicide Bombings
(April 24, 5pm)

The Palestinian leadership is plainly aware that Israel's offensive has turned international public opinion strongly against Sharon, and they hope to hold onto that PR advantage by restraining suicide bombers from crossing Israel's 1967 borders. An Al Aksa Martyr's Brigade commander told the New York times two days ago that his group would refrain from sending bombers into Israel proper, focusing their attacks only on soldiers and settlers in the West Bank and Gaza. And the Palestinian Authority appears to have extracted a similar promise from Hamas in order to avoid a Palestinian civil war — because the PA's very existence would be on the line if there were further attacks in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. Palestinian leaders believe attacks on soldiers and settlers outside Israel's 1967 borders play quite differently in international public opinion. And besides, getting the militants to confine their attacks to the West Bank and Gaza may be as far as the PA is able to go politically in restraining militants right now.

Portrait of the Terrorist as a Young Man
(April 24, 5pm)

Press conferences held by prisoners with their interrogators present should always be taken with at least a pinch of salt. Still, Islamic Jihad's Thabet Mardawi offered some fascinating insights to Haaretz on the battle for Jenin, and the politics and mechanics of suicide bombing.

Marwan Mandela?
(April 24, 5pm)

By arresting Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, Israel may have given him the inside track in the race to succeed Yasser Arafat, argues Haaretz's Danny Rubinstein. Imprisoning Barghouti will only increase his moral authority over Palestinian militants, Rubeinstein says, and that will likely make his endorsement necessary for the success of any long-term peace agreement — once the 73-year-old Arafat has passed from the scene, the imprisoned Barghouti's importance in Palestinian politics could become the equivalent of that of the imprisoned Nelson Mandela in South Africa.

Sharon's Next Move
(April 24, 5pm)

Israel's media is filled with speculation over what Prime Minister Sharon will do next — particularly concerning the fate of Yasser Arafat. The U.S. and Sharon's Labor Party coalition partners have warned against any move to oust Arafat. But Sharon may instead heed the advice of the Israeli right, outlined in this Jerusalem Post editorial. "Israel stood up to American dictates and the sky did not fall," writes the Post in an editorial on the lessons of the Powell visit. The lesson drawn is that Sharon should get on with booting out Arafat, and Bush will fall into line. From the other end of the spectrum, Haaretz warns the Bush administration that Sharon's repeated vows in recent days to maintain every Israeli settlement in the West Bank and Gaza "cast a dark shadow" over President Bush's claim that the Israeli prime minister is a "man of peace." In the mean time, they warn, he may be about to launch a new offensive in Gaza.

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