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(May 13, 10.45am)
If you think Ariel Sharon is having a tough time with his own political base, consider the situation of Yasser Arafat: The Palestinian leader is under growing pressure from all sides to reform his autocratic administration. The Saudis and Egyptians are pushing him to mount a serious crackdown on terrorism, and even in his own Fatah organization there are moves to limit his power. But there are growing signs that the shakeup in Palestinian politics will be anything but smooth — two senior Arafat aides have come under attack from unknown assailants in recent days, including Arafat financial adviser Muhammad Rashid. Rashid is reportedly close to Muhammad Dahlan, the Gaza security chief who is more and more openly challenging his West Bank rival Jibril Rajoub on Rajoub's home turf for overall control over PA security forces. Rashid was in Europe at the time of the attempted assault, and Arafat has urged him to stay there until the situation calms down. Also, the Palestinian leader's decision to cancel a visit to the Jenin refugee camp for "security reasons" appears to have been not unrelated to the militant sentiment of the crowd.
Bracing for Retaliation
(May 8 1pm)
The keywords in most speculation over Israel's likely response to the Rishon Letzion massacre are 'Arafat' and 'Gaza'. Domestic political pressure is mounting on Sharon to retaliate for the bombing by sending Yasser Arafat into exile, despite Washington's longstanding opposition to such a move. And Gaza, the Hamas stronghold which was left untouched during "Operation Defensive Shield" may be the target of a new military offensive. But some Israeli commentators fear the retaliation could play into the hands of Arafat and Hamas, by deepening Israel's diplomatic crisis and reinforcing Arafat's political standing. But Sharon may be assuming that the U.S. will acquiesce to Arafat's ouster: In the Israeli leader's account of his discussion with President Bush, the U.S. leader agreed with Sharon's position rejecting talks with the Palestinian Authority as long as Arafat remains its leader. The Bush administration certainly appears to have tilted back towards the Israeli position that security and terrorism are the primary issues on the Israeli-Palestinian agenda, and that political negotiations will have to wait. The latest bombing, and Israel's expected response, are likely to make that the practical reality. Problem is that it leaves the Bush administration without a viable policy to stabilize the region.
Abdullah's Dilemma
(May 8, 1pm)
Tuesday's events don't bode well for the White House visit by King Abdullah of Jordan. Abdullah wants rapid movement towards a final political settlement along the lines envisaged by the Arab League, warning that any further interim agreements will fail at great cost to all parties. And the King has plenty of reason to be nervous as a Hashemite ruling over a population that is 60 percent Palestinian, wedged between Israel and Iraq.
Sharon's Plan
(May 7, 4.30pm)
Ariel Sharon doesn't want a final-status agreement with the Palestinians any time soon, but how does he see the outline of an eventual Palestinian state? Senior Israeli correspondent Aluf Benn writes in Foreign Affairs that Sharon's map of a final settlement keeps two large chunks of the West Bank in Israeli hands to ensure Israel's security and water supply. Benn offers fascinating insights into the Israeli leader's thinking, and how it differs from that of many of his predecessors. The problem for President Bush is how to reconcile Sharon's version of peace with that adopted by the Arab League, which requires Israeli withdrawal to 1967 borders.
?In What Capacity Would They Come to Italy?'
(May 7 12.30pm)
The deal to end the siege at the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem before Ariel Sharon and George Bush's heart-to-heart Tuesday hit an unexpected snag over an EU spat. Italy is the proposed destination for 13 of the gunmen inside the church; 26 will be sent to Gaza. But the Italians say they weren't consulted and were kept in the dark by the British, who were involved in the negotiation. And they're not going to simply comply. "This thing about hosting Palestinian terrorists to facilitate the process will be studied," said a spokesman. "There are still things to clarify: for example, in what capacity would they come to Italy?" As gunmen, silly.
Clinton Backs Mideast Peacekeepers
(May 7, 12.30pm)
Perhaps the fact that he'll never have to face another election has allowed former President and presumptive talk-show host Bill Clinton the intellectual freedom to embrace a view of the Middle East gaining ground abroad, but anathema to Israel's leaders and inside the Beltway: Deploying U.S. peacekeepers as part of a wider peace agreement that will have to be, "if not imposed, at least strongly pushed." That has Israeli hawks such as Army chief General Shaul Mofaz warning of "creeping internationalization" of the conflict. But that's exactly what a growing number of those involved in previous mediation efforts are advocating. For example, in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, former U.S. official Robert Malley, who was part of Clinton's team at Camp David, joins Palestinian negotiator Hussein Agha to argue that an internationally imposed solution is the only way to save the situation.
'Martyrs' for the Christian Right?
(May 7, 12.30pm)
Many Israelis have welcomed the support of Christian conservatives in their battle to sway U.S. foreign policy. But Jerusalem Report columnist Gershon Gorenberg has some qualms over just why the Christian Right backs Israel. He suspects this support is based on a reading of Christian prophecy that requires an apocalyptic war in the Middle East as the precondition for Christ's return. In other words, he warns, many Christian conservatives are not interested in the argument that Israel's survival requires reaching an accommodation with the Palestinians. Instead, he believes, they'll back the most hard-line positions in Israel precisely because these accord with the apocalyptic vision. Gorenberg's message to these Christians: "I'm not interested in being your shahid (martyr)."